Three months ago, when the ECB released its latest quarterly inflation expectations, we mocked that “there is a bit of a hockeystick” going from 2015 to 2016, when HICP inflation was expected to soar from 0.1% to 1.0%.
“in March 2014, the ECB predicted 2016 year end inflation would be 1.5%. It now predicts it will rise to 1.0%, decidedly lower than the 1.5% predicted in June, and yet in our humble opinion, still about 1% higher than where it will end up.”
Visually:
We were right, because moments ago the ECB reveled its latest, 2016 year-end inflation forecast, which suffered a spectacular implosion, plunging from December’s 1.0%, to a laughable 0.1%, still technically 0.1% above our modest prediction which once again was essentially spot on… and the ECB was dead wrong.
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