The Morning After: How The World Reacted To Trump’s Withdrawal From The Iran Nuclear Deal

One day after Trump announced he will withdraw the US from Obama’s landmark 2015 deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program while reinstating the “harshest of sanctions” on the Persian Gulf country, and giving US allies 180 days to extricate themselves from Iranian oil deals as it seeks to economically isolate and curb oil exports from the #3 OPEC producer, this is how the world and capital markets are reacting.

This following summary, prepared by Bloomberg, includes reactions from governments and companies in Europe and Asia, market impact and views from analysts.

EUROPEAN GOVT REACTIONS:

EUROPEAN COMPANY REACTIONS:

  • Spain’s Cepsa will switch from Iran crude in event of sanctions
  • Poland’s Lotos says Trump decision on Iran is “neutral” for co.
  • Poland’s Orlen says its delivery terms are flexible
  • Maersk CEO says fallout of Iran decision is unclear
  • Serica looks at implications for North Sea Rhum field
  • European cos that rushed into Iran now prepare to rush back out
  • April 19: Total CEO to stop Iran project if no U.S. exemption

ASIAN GOVT REACTIONS:

ASIAN COMPANY REACTIONS:

  • Indian refiners say they’ll look to keep paying Iran in euros
  • Taiwan’s CPC watching crude prices closely on Iran sanctions
  • Taiwan’s Formosa can replace Iran oil with other Mideast supply
  • Fuji Oil says undecided on how to respond to U.S.- Iran sanctions
  • Japan’s Jera says Iran sanctions impact may spread to LNG market

MARKET/PRODUCER/SUPPLY REACTIONS:

ANALYST VIEWS:

  • EA: Saudi output to rise if Iran sanction losses significant
  • Bernstein: Oil could rise toward $90 after move on Iran deal
  • Orient: China may be cautious in opposing U.S.-Iran sanctions
  • UBS: Iran oil exports may fall by 200k-500k b/d in next 6 months
  • Barclays: Iran output seen unaffected in 2018 by Trump move
  • Drewry: Sanctions on Iran may create space for shale exports
  • “Disaster” for Asia if U.S. sanctions Iran condensate
  • CICC: U.S. sanctions on Iran to keep Brent around $75- $80
  • OANDO: Oil price volatility to continue on U.S. Iran deal exit
  • EIG: U.S. exiting nuclear deal may remove 700K b/d of Iran oil
  • MUFG: China may keep Iran crude imports despite U.S. sanctions

REACTION FROM WITHIN IRAN:

  • Barbs, flag burning and despair: Iran reacts to U.S. deal exit
  • Rouhani: Iran to Prepare for Enrichment if Needed After 3 Weeks
  • Rouhani: Iran Can Achieve Benefits of JCPOA With 5 Countries

Source: Bloomberg

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