FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at TD Securities explained that this is starting to feel familiar. It’s only January, and already a significant downturn in oil and diffuse EM risks are weighing on 2016 forecasts—particularly inflation. “But this year, it won’t be central banks to the rescue. At best, we get a gradual tilt toward easing after the Fed for the first time hiked into a global slowdown.”
Key Quotes:
“G10 rates
Short front end Treasuries and long US 10yr TIPS BEs. For EZ expect ERZ6/ERZ7 spread to tighten as the mkt adjust to the ‘lower for longer’ theme, neutral long end.
G10 FX
USD moderately firm but outright bullish JPY. Idiosyncrasies leave commodity currencies vulnerable. GBP pressures to remain, two-way risk for EUR.
EMFX & Rates
Focus on China, with CNY depreciation towards free float supporting vol until Q2/Q3, when EM assets may start decoupling from the trend.
Commodities
Crude oil to rise as production falls & Iran not seen flooding the market. Precious metals to receive boost from waning expectations of aggressive Fed hikes.
What Has Changed
Falling oil prices and deteriorating global growth has set the ECB off onto a path of more easing, whilst the Fed continues to hike.
S&P downgrade of Poland from A-(positive) to BBB+(negative). Fitch and Moodys may follow on back of bank tax and forced FX mortgage conversions.BCB did not hike at Jan meeting.
What We’ve Changed
Shifted down our Bund forecasts to reflect downward risks to growth and inflation, and of risks of further ECB QE. Modest shift down in our front end US forecasts.
More easing in China rates, more CNY weakness than originally expected. Weaker Asian FX forecasts vs USD. RUB forecast reflect an oil rebound – possibly one of the most attractive EM ccys this yr. On political/rating agency events – bearish PLN. “
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)