Reuters has had some questionable problems with its data in the past like their decision to “tweak” their polling methodology when Trump took his first inexplicable lead over Hillary back in July (see our post entitled “Hillary Lead Over Trump Surges After Reuters “Tweaks” Poll“). Well the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll as of 8/25/16 suggests that Hillary’s “lead” over Trump seems to be vanishing…may be getting close to time for another “tweak.”
But polling data glosses over a critical component of what ultimately determines the winners of elections – namely, voter turnout. For that, Reuters has also launched a tool which helps you analyze various voter turnout scenarios and the resulting electoral college results. “Shockingly,” Reuters doesn’t seem to think a Trump victory is all that likely. In their pre-loaded “How Trump Could Win” scenario, Reuters finds that Trump would need an 11% spike in Republican voter turnout combined with a 9% decline in minority Democratic voters to stand a chance.
Click on the graphic below to create your own interactive scenarios.
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