FXStreet (Edinburgh) – Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at BTMU, sees the Turkish currency losing further ground in the near term.
Key Quotes
“We noticed with interest this morning that USD/TRY hit a new post-election high today as investor concerns grow over the potential economic impact from the downing of a Russian fighter jet earlier this week”.
“Russia is now subjecting Turkish agricultural products to additional border checks with 15% of products found to have failed Russian requirements. The Russian government is justifying the actions on security grounds and argue that any steps taken have been within current WTO rules”.
“The Russian government has also ordered restrictions in tourists travelling to Turkey which is likely to hit the Turkish economy hard. According to Bloomberg, 3.3mn Russian tourists travelled to Turkey in the first nine months of this year, second only to Germany. Those tourists receipts help limit the size of Turkey’s large current account deficit and with overall tourism likely to be hit as well, the developments this week will likely raise external financing risks further”.
“On top of that yesterday we had details of the new government’s program drop the mention of monetary policy being conducted in an “independent fashion”. This may be nothing but with investors nervous over President Erdogan’s desire to influence policy decisions, it will not help investor sentiment. The lira remains vulnerable to further selling over the near-term”.
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