Market Roundup

  • EU Commission says there may be a euro working group meeting on Greece before Easter.
  • German Fin Min spokesman says before Greece can get further aid parliament in Athens must pass further reform measures; there is no date for a euro group meeting on Greece yet.
  • China Finance Min: Eases policy on taxation of home sales.
  • Spain’s De Guindos says ECB’s quantitative easing already having positive impact on inflation expectations.
  • U.S. Treasury Sec: U.S. supports China’s efforts to get economy to rely more on domestic demand.
  • Japan PM Abe: Monetary policy is not aimed at weakening yen but to achieve price stability.
  • European Union Mar selling price expectation increases to -4.4 vs previous -5.5.
  • European Union Mar consumer inflation expectation increases to -0.8 vs previous -2.3.
  • European Union Mar consumer confidence final increases to -3.7 (consensus -3.7 ) vs previous -6.7.
  • European Union Mar services sentiment increases to 6.0 (consensus 5.1 ) vs previous 4.5.
  • European Union Mar economic sentiment increases to 103.9 (consensus 103.1 ) vs previous 102.1.
  • European Union Mar business climate increases to 0.23 (consensus 0.18 ) vs previous 0.07.
  • European Union Mar industrial sentiment increases to -2.9 (consensus -4.0 ) vs previous -4.7.
  • United Kingdom Feb M4 money supply increases to -0.2 % vs previous -0.8 %.
  • United Kingdom Feb mortgage approvals increase to 61.760 k (consensus 61.500 k) vs previous 60.786 k.
  • United Kingdom Feb BOE consumer credit decreases TO +0.740 bln gbp (consensus 0.900 bln gbp) vs previous 0.817 bln gbp.
  • United Kingdom Feb mortgage lending increases to +1.741 bln gbp (consensus 1.600 bln gbp) vs previous 1.558 bln gbp.
  • Italy Mar consumer confidence stays flat at 110.9 (consensus 110.9 ) vs previous 110.9.
  • Italy Mar business confidence increases to 103.7 (consensus 99.8 ) vs previous 99.1.

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) US Personal Income (Feb) consensus +0.3% m/m, previous +0.3% m/m.
  • (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) US Consumption Expenditures (Feb) consensus +0.2% m/m, previous -0.2% m/m.
  • (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) US Core PCE Deflator (Feb) consensus +1.3% y/y, previous +1.3% y/y.
  • (1100 EDT/1500 GMT) US Pending Home Sales Index (Feb) consensus +0.4% m/m, previous +1.7% m/m.
  • (1130 EDT/1530 GMT) US Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Mar) previous -11.2.
  • (1400 EDT/1800 GMT) Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE price index (Feb) previous -0.3% m/m.

Key Events Ahead

  • (1245 EDT/1645 GMT) FedTrade 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $2.025 bln).
  • (1530 EDT/1930 GMT) FedTrade 15-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $650 mln).
  • (2015 EDT/0015 GMT) FOMC Vice Chair Fischer at 2015 Financial Markets Conference

FX Recap

EUR/USD saw muted price action in Europe today and currently trades around 1.0857 levels. 30H Bolli helped to hold its decline at 1.0820, 200HMA on top at 1.0849. Offers likely to be build ahead of the early Europe 1.0880 highs. The pair could rise to 1.0950 levels, if the reforms list of Greece’s creditors is accepted. In case of rejection, pair could likely fall to 1.08 levels. Option expiries at 1.0850 (465M), 1.0900 (427M), 1.0950 (529M), 1.10 (622M). USD/JPY rose above 10-DMA as US dollar strengthened across board and trades at 119.70 levels at present. It inched higher mainly as it broke above the key 119.50 handle, making way for a test of 120 levels. Markets now turn their focus on US data including CORE PCE price index and pending home sales data for further activity in the pair. Resistance is seen at 119.33 levels and then at 119.85 levels. On the flipside, support is located at 119 and then at 118.65 levels. Option expiries at 118.70 (850M), 119.00 (250M). USD/CAD hit a fresh 10-day high of 1.2649 in early Europe, with falling oil prices weigh on the CAD. WTI was trading around $47.80/barrel today, 110 cents lower on the day. Large 1.26 option expiry seen for today’s NY cut. 1.2597 was Asia low.USD/CHF pared previous gains and stayed below the key 0.97 handle in Europe. It currently trades at 0.9629 levels. To the topside, the pair is likely to face resistance at 0.9674 levels, a break above could push it to 0.9700 levels. On the other hand, support is seen at 0.9619 levels and further below at 0.9589 levels.GBP/USD started the week on a weaker note as sterling was sold-up recklessly against the US counterpart. USD mainly remained boosted by hawkish Yellen’s comments. The pair currently trades at 1.4815 levels, slightly consolidating from 1.4803 levels (session lows) posted some time ago. To the upside, resistance is seen at 1.4866, and further at 1.4895 levels. On the downside, support is seen at 1.4800 levels, below which losses could be extended to 1.4728 levels.

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