Market Roundup
- Dollar index up 0.85%, clear above its 21DMA.
- Euro set for near 11% quarterly fall vs dollar.
- Dollar on track for biggest quarterly gain since 2008.
- Greek govt officials say talks with Brussels group of lenders might continue next week.
- Greek govt officials say Greek technical team returning to Athens from Brussels without deal with EU/IMF lenders.
- European Union Mar inflation ex food & enr flash stays flat at 0.6 % vs previous 0.6 %.
- European Union Feb unemployment rate increases to 11.3 % (consensus 11.2 %) vs previous 11.2 %.
- European Union Mar inflation, flash yy increases to -0.1 % (consensus -0.1 %) vs previous -0.3 %.
- Italy Feb producer prices mm increases to 0.5 % vs previous -1.1 %.
- Italy Mar CPI (EU norm) prelim yy decreases to -0.1 % (consensus 0.1 %) vs previous 0.1 %.
- Italy Mar consumer price prelim mm decreases to 0.1 % (consensus 0.1 %) vs previous 0.4 %.
- Italy Mar CPI (EU norm) prelim mm increases to 2.0 % (consensus 2.2 %) vs previous 0.3 %.
- Italy Feb unemployment rate increases to 12.7 % (consensus 12.6 %) vs previous 12.6 %.
- Germany Mar unemployment change sa increases to -15 k (consensus -12 k) vs previous -20 k.
- Germany Mar unemployment rate sa decreases to 6.4 % (consensus 6.5 %) vs previous 6.5 %.
- Germany Mar unemployment change sa increases to -14 k (consensus -12 k) vs previous -20 k.
- Germany Feb retail sales mm real decreases to -0.5 % (consensus -0.7 %) vs previous 2.9 %.
- France Feb producer prices mm increases to +0.7 % vs previous -0.9 %.
- United Kingdom Q4 business investment qq increases to -0.9 % vs previous -1.4 %.
- United Kingdom Q4 GDP qq increases to +0.6 % (consensus 0.5 %) vs previous 0.5 %.
- United Kingdom Q4 current account increases to -25.3 bln gbp (consensus -21.50 bln gbp) vs previous -27.000 bln gbp.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0845 EDT/1245 GMT) USRetailEconomist.com/GS Chain Store Sales Idx (weekly Mar 28) previous +3.0% y/y
- (0955 EDT/1355 GMT) USRedbook Same Store Sales Idx (weekly Mar 28) previous +2.8% y/y
- (1000 EDT/1400GMT) US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Idx (Jan) consensus +4.5% y/y, previous +4.5% y/y
- (1045 EDT/1445 GMT) USChicago PMI (Mar) consensus 51.5, previous 45.8
- (1100 EDT/1500 GMT)US Consumer Confidence (Mar) consensus 96.0, previous 96.4
- (1130 EDT/1530 GMT) USDallas Fed Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (Mar) previous 1.7
Key Events Ahead
- (0855 EDT/1255 GMT)FRB Richmond’s Lacker on the economic outlook; Richmond, VA
- (1115 EDT/1515GMT) FRB Cleveland’s Mester at 2015 Financial Markets Conference; Stone Mountain, GA
- (1245 EDT/1645 GMT)FedTrade 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.075 bln)
- (1600 EDT/2000GMT) FRB Kansas City’s George speaks on the U.S. economy; New York, NY
FX Recap
EUR/USD continued moving south despite strong German data, nearing 11 percent quarterly fall. It currently trades at 1.0737 levels. German unemployment rate hit a record low of 6.4 percent in March. Pair sees immediate support at 1.0685 levels, and a break below could drag it to 1.0610 levels. On the other hand, resistance is located at 1.0755 levels, above which it could extend its gains to 1.0825 levels. Option expiries at 1.0700 (323M), 1.0800 (525M) – Wed’ sees 2bln 1.08. USD/JPY has been unable to hold it move above the 120 mark it breached in the previous session and currently trades at 119.93 levels. However, overall bias stays with the bulls and the pair is likely to test the 120 handle again. On the top side, immediate resistance is at 120.00 levels and then at 120.40 levels. On the downside, support is located at 119.20 levels and then at 118.84 levels. Option expiries at 120.00 (975M), 120.50 (480M).USD/CAD soared higher on Tuesday on the back of US dollar strength and currently trades at 1.2740 levels. The US dollar has been boosted by upbeat US economic releases which suggest that US economic recovery has resumed again. Pair sees immediate resistance at 1.2760 levels, above which the gains could be extended to 1.2800 levels. On the flipside, support is seen at 1.2700 levels, and further below at 1.2660 levels. USD/CHF rose higher in Asia and broke above the 0.97 handle as US dollar strengthened across board. It currently trades at 0.9725 levels. To the topside, resistance is seen at 0.9751 levels, and a break above could push the pair to 0.9813 levels. On the flipside, it is likely to find support at 0.9660 levels, and then at 0.9600 levels. Option expiries at 0.9540 (695M), 0.9600 (864M), 0.9800 (624M).GBP/USD hit the sessions low at 1.4755 in the early European trading, and subsequently consolidated at 1.4765, down 0.27%. It currently trades at 1.4785 levels and is likely to find support at 1.4685, the low of March 19. On the other hand, resistance is located at 1.4903, Monday’s high. EUR/GBP dropped to fresh six days lows after the release of final estimate of UK Q4 2014 GBP boosted sterling. It currently trades at 0.7257 levels.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com