Market Roundup
- Sterling hits day’s low of $1.4815 after UK data, from $1.4835 beforehand.
- AUD/USD fresh 6 yr low at 0.7554.
- ECB’s Lautenschlaeger says has doubts that the asset purchase programme will have the desired economic impact; low interest rates raise risk of overheating and price bubbles in other asset classes; separation of monetary policy and banking supervision as the better option in the long run.
- French Finmin says progress has been made with latest Greek reform list, more progress must be made, more details needed.
- United Kingdom Mar Markit/CIPS cons PMI decreases to 57.8 (consensus 59.5 ) vs previous 60.1.
- Brazil Mar IPC-Fipe inflation idx decreases to 0.7 % (consensus 0.69 %) vs previous 1.22 %
- Italy Q4 ISTAT public deficit/GDP decrease to 2.3 % vs previous 3.50 %
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Challenger Job-Cuts Report (Mar) previous 50,579.
- (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) USInternational Trade (Feb) e: -$41.2 bln, previous -$41.8 bln.
- (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) US Jobless Claims (Mar 28 week) consensus 285k, previous 282k.
- (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) US Continued Claims (Mar 21 week) consensus 2.405 mln, previous 2.416 mln.
- (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) US CY’15 seasonal factors/5 yrs of revised seasonal factors for initial/continued claims
- (0930 EDT/1330 GMT) US NFIB releases results of March Jobs Survey
- (1100 EDT/1500 GMT) USFactory Orders (Feb) consensys -0.5% m/m, previous -0.2% m/m
- (1100 EDT/1500 GMT) US Factory Orders ex-Trans (Feb) previous -0.4% m/m
- (1100 EDT/1500 GMT) US Nondefense Capital Goods ex-Air (Feb) previous -1.4% m/m
Key Events Ahead
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) Fed Chair Yellen brief opening remarks at economic mobility conf; Washington
- (1245 EDT/1645GMT) FedTrade 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.075 bln)
- (1500 EDT/1900GMT) UK party leaders election debate UK ITV
FX Recap
EUR/USD extended its move upwards and broke above session highs around 1.0820 levels. It currently trades at 1.0835 levels. The pair continues to be weighed by the developments in Greece. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at 1.0846 levels, and a break above would target 1.0858 levels and then 1.0900 levels. On the flipside, support is likely to be found at 1.0713 levels and further below at 1.0688 levels. Option expiries at 1.0700 (740M), 1.0800 (736M), 1.0850 (677M).USD/JPY remained largely unchanged in Europe due to lack of major economic releases and traded in thin 119.44-119.65 range. It currently trades at 119.559 levels. It will likely see some action after the release of US non-farm payroll figures, due tomorrow. Pair sees near-term resistance at 120.34, 120.81 levels and support at 119.69, 119.51 levels. Option expiries at 119.50 (607M), 120.00 (2.8BLN), 120.80 (1BLN).AUD/USD moved further south on Thursday and hit a fresh six year low 0.7554 levels. It remains pressured by falling iron ore prices along with expectations of RBA rate cut next week. Stronger-than-expected figures for the US NFP could pull the pair further down. On the topside, resistance is located at 0.7589 levels and a break above could extend its gains to 0.7634 levels. On the other hand, support might be found at 0.7500 levels and then at 0.7433 levels.GBP/USD hits day’s low of $1.4815 after weaker than expected UK data, from $1.4835 beforehand. It currently trades at 1.4794 levels. Short term bias remains neutral and the pair is expected to continue trading sideways. Markets await US NFP to be released tomorrow and the pair is expected to see some action depending on the data. On the topside, resistance is seen at 1.4850 levels, and then at 1.4903 levels. The pair faces major support at 1.4800 levels and a break below this level would make the way for 1.4685 levels. USD/CAD: The US dollar is seen weakening against the Canadian counterpart, with the pair hovering near 1.2600 levels. The offered tone was little changed around the USD on account of muted activity due to Good Friday and as traders await US NFP figures. On the topside, resistance is seen at 1.2653 levels and then at 1.2711 levels. On the downside, support is located at 1.2588 levels and further below at 1.2468 levels. Option expiries at 1.2500-05 (500M), 1.2515 (296M), 1.2600 (494M).
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