Australian Dollar:

Erasing a drop of 14 100 in January the Australian economy produced 15 600 new jobs last month a number significant enough to see the official unemployment rate fall from 6.4 to 6.3 percent. In what proved to be a turbulent day of trade the Australian dollar fluctuated between a high of 0.7729 and a low of 0.7572 when valued against its US Counterpart as investors weighed the positive headline number against a broader fall in the labour force participation rate. Whilst investors continue to speculate on the number of rate cuts expected from domestic policy makers this year, a broadly weaker Greenback overnight has also had a profound impact as the Australian dollar opens this morning close to a full cent stronger as it currently buys 76.98 US Cents.

We expect a range today of 0.7640 – 0.7730

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar has been propelled forward over the past 24 hours with the initial move higher yesterday triggered by a better than expected domestic outlook communicated by the RBNZ. Whilst Governor Graeme Wheeler yesterday kept the official cash rate on hold at 3.5 percent he did say rates in the future could go either up or down given the domestic economy remains in a healthier state when compared to many of its global counterparts. Reaching a high of 0.7441 when valued against its US Counterpart a broadly weaker US dollar has also helped the Kiwi’s cause overnight as it opens higher this morning at a rate of 0.7383. In what’s likely to be a key driver this evening investors will be looking towards US Consumer Sentiment results as well PPI numbers from February.

We expect a range today of 0.7340 – 0.7420

Great British Pound:

Signalling that The Bank of England remains in no rush to raise interest rates, Governor Mark Carney commented overnight that he expected the impact of a higher Sterling and low global inflation to last for some time.  Given persistently low domestic and global price pressures such deflationary forces are expected to remain a headwind towards rates moving higher. Following such comments overnight the Great British Pound has been sold heavily across the board falling against a handful of its major peers. Opening notably lower this morning when valued against the Greenback (1.4882), the Aussie (1.9340) and the Kiwi (2.0152), further commentary from the Monetary Policy Committee is expected tonight.

We expect a range today of 1.9280 – 1.9390


Whilst US Stocks rose overnight helped by a weaker dollar which has eased worries surrounding corporate profits, the big story overnight followed the release of February Retail Sales data which unexpectedly fell during February, notching a decline for a third consecutive month. Keeping in mind US employers have added 863 000 new jobs across the same corresponding period to date the wealth effect associated with lower petrol prices and a lower level of joblessness has not flowed through to a greater degree of spending. Suggesting the drop in consumption may simply be a side effect caused by one of the coldest February’s on record, last night’s poor read is still expected to have negative implications on first quarter GDP. With the US dollar is weaker across the board the EURO is stronger by comparison at a rate of 1.0617. Headlining tonight’s economic calendar will be the release of February’s Producer Price Index which is expected to show producer prices to have risen by 0.2 percent, a leading indicator towards consumer inflation.   

Data releases

AUD: No data today

NZD: Business NZ Manufacturing Index

JPY: No data today

GBP: MPC Member Shafik Speaks

EUR: No data today

USD: PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

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