The Canadian dollar is slightly lower in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3383, up 0.18% on the day. The spotlight is on employment numbers on both sides of the border. In the U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in at 196 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 172 thousand in March. Still, this estimate is significantly lower than the December and January releases, both of which were above the 300-thousand level. Wage growth dipped to 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. In Canada, employment declined by 7.2 thousand in March, after a huge increase of 55.9 thousand in February.
The Canadian economy has been affected by the trade war between the U.S. and China, especially the manufacturing and export sectors. With talks between the two super-economies continuing, there is optimism that China and the U.S. will reach a deal, and that could boost the Canadian dollar. There were reports this week that an agreement is 90% complete, with the remaining issues including enforcement mechanisms and the removal of trade tariffs. The optimism over the trade talks has buoyed share prices in China, with the China 50 index rising to its highest level since March 2018 earlier this week.
May asks EU for Brexit extension to June 30; EU could offer a year
USD/CAD – CAD falls on Canadian jobs report and stronger NFP
USD/CAD Fundamentals
Friday (April 5)
- 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.3%
- 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 172K
- 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.8%
- 8:30 Canadian Employment Change. Estimate 3.0K. Actual -7.2K
- 8:30 Canadian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 5.8%. Actual 5.8%
- 15:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 17.2B
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
USD/CAD for Friday, April 5, 2019
USD/CAD, April 5 at 9:10 EST
Open: 1.3358 High: 1.3403 Low: 1.3349 Close: 1.3383
USD/CAD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.3125 | 1.3200 | 1.3290 | 1.3383 | 1.3445 | 1.3552 |
USD/CAD showed little movement in the Asian session and posted small gains in European trade
- 1.3290 is providing support
- 1.3383 was tested earlier in resistance. It is a weak line
- Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
- Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662
