Monthly: intensive growth of the index continued but ADX, as a week ago, treats this movement as non-trending. This increases the probability of downward rebound from the upper Bollinger band (2225.4), which again will send the price to the middle band (2073.5)
Weekly: an ambiguos situation. ADX is rising, but has not reached the trendline area yet. Bollinger envelopes are stable, horizontal, so we confirm resistance 2225.4. However, for safety reasons, it is better to wait for confirming signals in this area.
Daily chart: a better shaped resistance around 2199.6 (the upper Bollinger band). Suppoer is 1245.2 (the middle band).
The main scenario – flat 2145.2-2199.6
The alternative scenario – a more intensive growth 2225.4
1. Buy to 2199.6, 2225.4
2. Sales from 2199.6, 2225.2 (after we get signals on smaller charts)
Monthly: a continued flat of the oil around the middle Bollinger band (50.05). This is the most important psychological mark, which does not let go the price too far away to either side. ADX is corrective, so we are waiting for continuation of this trend.
Weekly: a flat horizontal corridor within Bollinger envelopes (42.81-53.56). ADX is passive, the corridor is expected to be stable.
Daily chart: at this local frame we can consider bullish pattern Over&Under from around 45.00. Resistance is at 48.37. The price may take a pullback to 45.00, from where buyers can finalize 53.08.
Expectations: a pullback towards 45.00, from where the oil can start to 53.08. This range can be in effect more than one week.
1. If there are short signals around 48.37 – sell to 45.00
2. Buy from 45.00 the medium-term target 53.00
Monthly: the price has almost reached the middle Bollinger band (1200.70). If this support is broken, then the way will be open for bears to 1035.43 (lower Bollinger band)
Weekly: breakthrough of the lower Bollinger envelope, which is a strong signal of continuation of decrease. But ADX is weak, so bulls have a chance to correct the price to 1307.65 (middle Bollinger band)
Daily chart: signs of weakness as the price is nearing support 1200.70 – bullish convergence of the oscillator. The correction may have the potential down to 1261.25 (middle Bollinger band)
Expectations: prick of 1200.70 and start of a pullback to 1261.25, where Sell signals may be formed again.
1. If there are Sell signals around 1200.70 – consider purchases to 1261.25.
2. On correction to 1261.25 we should look for entries into sales.