Market Roundup
- US Retail Sales MM Mar 0.9%, f/c 1%, -0.5%-prev, first pos read since Nov ’14, USD lower on miss
- United States Mar PPI exfood/energy yy decrease to +0.9 % (fcast 0.9 %) vs prev 1.0 %
- United States Mar PPI exfood/energy mm increase to +0.2 % (fcast 0.1 %) vs prev -0.5 %
- United States Mar PPI final demand yy decrease to -0.8 % (fcast -0.8 %) vs prev -0.6 %
- United States Mar PPI final demand mm increase to +0.2 % (fcast 0.2 %) vs prev -0.5 %
- United States Mar PPI ex food/energy/tr yy increase to +0.8 % vs prev 0.7 %
- United States Mar PPI ex food/energy/tr mm increase to +0.2 % vs prev 0.0 %
- United States w/e Redbook yy decrease to +1.1 % vs prev 3.4 %
- United States w/e Redbook mm decrease to +0.2 % vs prev 1.3 %
- United States Mar NFIB business optimism idx decrease to 95.2 vs prev 98.00
- United States Feb business inventories mm increase to +0.3 % (fcast 0.2 %) vs prev 0.0 %
- Brazil Retail Sales YY Feb -3.1%, f/c -2.15%, 0.5%-prev, misses despite weak f/c
- Japan’s Hamada USD/JPY 120 is acceptable, comment Monday re 105 referred to PPP not spot
- ECB raises ELA cap for Greek banks by 800 mln euros to EUR 74b (Sources)
- IMF’s Helbling ECB QE successful expects transmission of lower borrowing cost to real economy
- IMF keeps ’15 global econ growth f/c at 3.5%, cuts US ’15GDP growth f/c to 3.1 from 3.6%
- UK poll Cameron’s conservatives 2 percentage points ahead of labour (TNS poll)
- Swedish CB’s Skingsley says Riksbank stands ready to act b/w meetings if needed
- Pemex prices dual tranche deal, EUR 7/12-yr bond, EUR 2.25b total
Economic Data Ahead
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Food Price Index Mar (previous -0.7%)
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Consumer Sentiment Apr (previous -1.2%)
- (2200 ET/ 0200 GMT) China Urban investment (ytd)yy Mar 13.8%, (consensus 13.74%, previous 13.9%)
- (2200 ET/ 0200 GMT) China Industrial Output YY Mar 6.9%, (consensus 6.85%, previous 6.8%)
- (2200 ET/ 0200 GMT) China Retail Sales YY Mar 10.9%, (consensus 10.89%, previous 10.7%)
- (2200 ET/ 0200 GMT) China GDP YY Q1 7%, (consensus 7.02%, previous 7.3%)
- (2200 ET/ 0200 GMT) China GDP QQ SA Q1 1.4%, (consensus 1.43%, previous 1.5%)
- (0030 ET/ 0430 GMT) Japan Industrial Output Rev Feb (previous -3.4%)
- (0030 ET/ 0430 GMT) Japan Capacity Util Idx Chg MM Feb (previous 3.6%)
Key Events Ahead
- (2030 ET/ 0030 GMT) NewZealand RBNZ Dep Gov Spencer will speaks on housing at the Rotorua Chamber of Commerce
- (0215 ET/ 0615 GMT) Japan BOJ Gov Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at an annual meeting of Japan’s Trust Bank Assoc
FX Recap
GBP/USD: Cable staged an impressive almost 200-pip rally during the New York session as the dollar weakened broadly on the back of disappointing US retail sales coupled with a GDP forecast downgrade by the IMF. GBP/USD rose from a daily low of 1.4603 to a 5-day high of 1.4800, and is consolidating within a slim range just below the 1.48 mark. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.4775, still 0.69% above its opening price. Option expiries Wednesday 15th April: 1.4400 (479M), 1.4700 (755M)
AUD/USD: Aussie remains bearish overall as the RBA say is ready to act by cutting rates should need be. RBA monitoring data events closely, and this weeks’ jobs news will be a key assessment and gauge for the Central Bank. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7633 with a high of 0.7650 and a low of 0.7555. Supports are at 0.7507, 0.7488 and 0.7469, while on the flipside resistances are at 0.7654 and 0.7673. Option expiries Wednesday 15th April: 0.7600 (421M), 0.7675 (485M)
USD/CAD: Better tone from crude oil prices today plus mediocre US data wieghed on USD/CAD early in the US session. The greenback rebounded from daily lows in the 1.2440 area vs. the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD is now flirting with 1.2500. Market focus is on tomorrow’s BoC monetary policy meeting. Expectations are for the central bank to leave its monetary stance on hold. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2495 down 0.82% on the day. Next support is at 1.2444 (low ) followed by 1.2430 (low ) and finally 1.2410 (low ). Resiatances are at 1.2522 (high Apr.7), 1.2527 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.2555 (low ). Option expiries Wednesday 15th April: 1.2400 (418M), 1.2700 (535M)
EUR/USD: Poor US data releases today allowed the pair to recover part of last week’s deep pullback. EUR/USD briefly spiked above the 1.0700 handle, but then upside has run out of steam and is now pushing spot back to the 1.0670 region. The pair is now up 1.01% at 1.0673. Immediate resiatance is at 1.0708 (high ) followed by 1.0713 (low ) and then 1.0763 (10-d MA). Supports are at 1.0521 (low ), 1.0457 (2015 low ) and finally 1.0360 (low Jan.8 2003). Option expiries Wednesday 15th April: 1.0300 (1.6B), 1.0400 (630M), 1.0500 (631M), 1.0600 (426M).
GBP/CHF is recovering after bottoming on April 3 at 1.4131. The pair gained momentum on Tuesday and rose toward 1.4400. Pound tested a key short term support around 1.4270 for the second time this week but held above and rebounded. While the upside remained limited by 1.4400. GBP/CHF continues to consolidate around 1.4350. A break above 1.4400 could favor the bullish bias while a decline under 1.4270 with a confirmation, would open the doors for a decline to 1.4220.
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