Market Roundup
- Australia Leaves the Cash Rate Unchanged at 2.0%
- S. Korea Oct Consumer Price Index +0.9% Vs Yr Earlier (Reuters Poll +0.8%)
- S. Korea Oct Consumer Price Index 0.0% Vs Sept (Reuters Poll -0.2%)
- S. Korea Oct Core CPI +2.3 Pct Vs Yr Earlier
- New Zealand Commodity Price Index +6.9% in October – ANZ Bank
- Saudi Arabia Oct Emirates NBD comp PMI decrease to 55.7 vs prev 56.5
- RBA: AUD Adjusting To Significant Declines in Key Commodity Prices
- RBA Says Judged Policy Appropriate at This Meeting
- RBA: Monetary Policy needs to be Accommodative
- RBA: Regulatory Measures Helping to Contain Housing Market Risks
- RBA Says Scope for Further Easing if Needed
- RBA Says To Continue Assessing Whether Current Rate Setting Effective
- RBA: Inflation is Low and Should Remain So
- RBA Says Prospects for Economy Have Firmed A Little
- RBA Says AUD Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices
- S. Korea to Maintain ‘Accommodative’ Monetary Policy While Staying Wary of Internal, External Risks – BOK
- S. Korea Does Not Face High Chance of Mass Outflows In Fed Rate Hike Process
- S. Korea Int Rates Will Likely Rise at ‘Limited Pace’ Even After Fed Rate Hike
- PBOC Sets Yuan Mid-Point at 6.3310 / Dlr Vs Last Close 6.3379
- Moody’s Changes Outlook On Argentina’s Caa1/(P)Caa2 Ratings To Stable From Negative; Caa1/(P)Caa2 Ratings Affirmed.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0430 ET/0930 GMT) UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
- (0430 ET/0930 GMT) UK Markit/CIPS Cons PMI
- (0845 ET/1345 GMT) SK C/A Balance EUR
Key Events Ahead
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) AUSTRIA 10Y B 1.200% 20/10/25 . . BN
- (0500 ET/1000 GMT) AUSTRIA 19Y B 2.400% 23/05/34 . . TOTAL
FX Beat
USD: The dollar index was barely changed at 96.908 after drifting between 96.635 and 96.965. The euro was hemmed in a tight $1.1000-$1.1053 range and last stood at $1.1018.AUD/USD spiked to 0.7210 on no change, then slid to 0.7110 on easing bias, and has now regained the 0.72 handle. Aussie bulls ignore RBA’s further easing bias and cheer the central banks optimistic comments on economic outlook. AUD/USD is pushing higher as futures price out Dec easing, futures market only pricing in around a 35% chance of Dec 25 BP rate cut. Also RBA Governor Stevens speaks Thursday and RBA SOMP released on Friday, the c.bank has chance to clarify intentions. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7200, easing slightly after hitting highs of 0.7212. Strong resistance is seen at 0.72 (trendline) ahead of 0.7225 (21-day MA and 50% of 0.7382/0.7067 converge). Stochs on hourlies show bearish crossover from overbought levels, correction lower could ensue. Supports on the downside are seen at 0.7162 (hourly 10 SMA), and further below at 0.7109 (cloud top).
USD/JPY trades modestly flat at 120.68, capped below 10 DMA at 120.76. The pair extends overnight side-trend amidst thin volumes as the Japanese markets remain closed today on account of ‘Culture Day’. The pair continues to move back and forth between 120-121.50 unable to set longer-term directions. USD/JPY is currently trading at 120.68, with resistances at 120.76 (10 DMA) ahead of 121.00/03 (psychological level/200-day SMA). Supports could be found at 120.60 (4h cloud top) and then at 120.15 (50-day SMA), and 120.00 (psychological level/Oct 28 low). Focus on US factory orders and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism due later today, while sentiment on the global equities will also continue to dominate.
GBP/USD was rejected from daily highs above the 100-day SMA at 1.5479 on Monday and pulled back to trade around opening levels. Cable has been stuck between 1.5929 and 1.5107 since May 2015 (6 months). On the day the pair remains range-bound, currently trading at 1.5425, with day’s high at 1.5428 and lows at 1.5410. Supports are seen at 1.5422 (Nov 2 low), 1.5345 (200-day SMA) and 1.5305/00 (Oct 30 low/psychological levels. Resistances line up at 1.5483/96 (100-day SMA/Nov 2 high), 1.5507 (Oct 15 high) and 1.5567 (Sep 21 high).
EUR/USD opened Asia at 1.1015 after topping out 1.1053 on Monday, traded in a 1.1007/19 range through the morning session. Sentiment around the pair remains bearish, a strong US payroll report could intensify downside momentum. The pair is at the time of writing trading at 1.1018, with next immediate hurdle at 1.1052 (Nov 2nd high) and supports on the downside at 1.10 (trendline and psychological support).
Equities RecapAsian share markets crept ahead on Tuesday after the benchmark for U.S tech stocks hit its highest in 15 years, while a holiday in Japan kept currencies tethered within recent tight ranges. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 1.2 percent after losing ground for five straight sessions. Australian stocks bounced, recouping a little ground after a vicious run of selling. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index unofficially closes up 1.31 pct at 5,233.40 pointsIn China, the CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen was all but flat. CSI300 index was little unchanged at 3,482.70 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index was flat at 3,325.67 points.Hong Kong shares climbed on Tuesday, tracking gains in global markets after the benchmark for U.S tech stocks hit its highest in 15 years.The Hang Seng index climbed 1.4 percent, to 22,676.17 points and the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index jumped 1.1 percent, to 10,351.64.Commodities RecapU.S. crude futures edged up early on Tuesday, but the market outlook remains bearish as supply still exceeds demand and due to worries the dollar will strengthen when the U.S. Federal Reserve eventually raises interest rates. Benchmark U.S. crude futures were trading at $46.27 per barrel at 0028 GMT, up 13 cents from their last settlement. Gold steadied after a four-day decline on Tuesday but languished near a four-week low as investors dumped the metal on expectations the Federal Reserve would hike U.S. rates this year. Spot gold ticked up 0.1 percent to $1,134.60 an ounce by 0246 GMT, but close to a four-week low of $1,132.35 reached in the previous session. Treasuries RecapNew Zealand government bonds had a soft tone, with yields 3 basis points higher.Australian government bond futures also eased, with the three-year bond contract off 3 ticks at 98.190. The 10-year contract shed 3.5 ticks to 97.3150, while the 20-year contract was down 2 ticks at 96.7750.EZ government bonds were pressured by improving economic data in Europe and comments from ECB officials. Yields across the euro zone were up, while yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries reached their highest in five weeks at 2.189 percent.
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