Iran’s Goal, Lift The Sanctions
With 30 June deadline looming, questions regarding the 5P+1 framework abound.
There has been discussions about the breakout, meaning that moment when Iran can produce the atomic bomb. The problem with that notion is that incremental enrichment continuing at the present or an accelerated pace makes it difficult, if not impossible to determine the moment when Iran can do that.
It is thought that there are penalties attached to non-nuclear compliance. But, the bureaucratic process for detection is obscure and IAEA investigators must make appointments for surveillance. Surprise visits are not allowed.
The framework agreement as it is known permits research and development at nuclear facilities in Fordow where advanced centrifuges are housed.
In the last week several Iranians have said that the deal is a victory that recognizes Iran’s path to nuclear weapons. By contrast US President Barack Obama indicates the arrangement forestalls Iranian nuclear ambitions.
Limits on Uranium enrichment can be overcome since inspection does not seem to include “scientific examination” of the enriched Uranium. Here too incremental shifts could occur without any clear signal. Even the export of Uranium beyond a certain level is uncertain, since the determination of that level is in the hands of Iranians.
Verification in any deal should not depend on trust or good will.
Clearly the Iran’s leaders and citizens want the burden of sanctions removed, and they may be intent in acquiring nuclear weapons as a political tool to be used against its Middle East adversaries.
In a recent interview President Obama admitted that Iran’s breakout time to the atomic bomb will be “Zero” in the near future.
The major issue the 5P+1 face is whether they can accept the assurances of Iran’s leader that the nation is developing nuclear capabilities for peaceful purposes.
By Reza Hashami, CEO, Global Modern Insurance, Inc.
Paul Ebeling, Editor
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