Australian Dollar:
The Australian dollar opens the new week marginally higher having taken advantage of the softer than anticipated US Non-farm Payroll report. In thin trading Friday US employers reported adding just 126,000 new jobs in March well below the 245,000 expected prompting a Greenback exodus and allowing the AUD to regain the 0.76 handle. Investors were reluctant to push the AUD much beyond 0.7650 as they squared positions leading into the RBA’s rate announcement Tuesday. Many expect the Central Bank to cut rates for the 2nd time in three months as stagnant commodity prices put increasing pressure on the domestic economy. We look to US non-manufacturing PMI for direction through Easter Monday as liquidity remains thin and ranges tested.
We expect a range today of 0.7510 – 0.7710
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar enjoyed a strong finish into the week touching highs of 0.7620 Friday as investors looked to dump the USD and US denominated assets in response to a startlingly low jobs data read. Thin liquidity helped amplify gains as the Kiwi neared parity against its trans-Tasman counterpart tapping post float highs of 0.9970 as investors prepare for an RBA rate adjustment Tuesday. Attentions turn to the US non-manufacturing PMI for direction through what will be a quite start to the week thanks to Easter Monday celebrations.
We expect a range today of 0.7510 – 0.7650
Great British Pound:
Sterling rallied strongly through trade on Friday bouncing back above 1.49 as markets responded to shockingly soft US Jobs data. With domestic markets closed for Good Friday direction came from U.S macroeconomic fundamentals and the weakest print in 15 months prompted a Cable rally. With Markets again closed for Easter Monday traders will look to US Non-manufacturing PMI for direction into the new week.
We expect a range today of 1.9410 – 1.9690
Majors:
The Greenback turned lower Friday plunging on the back of a softer than anticipated Non-Farm Payroll Report. U.S employers added just 126,000 jobs in March, the poorest monthly increase since December 2013 and well below market estimates. The lowly print raises concerns the Fed will now waylay plans to increase interest rates maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy stance as the world’s largest economy begins to feel the trade balance strain created by recent USD strength. The Euro advanced 1 percent in the aftermath touching 1.1050 as thin trading volumes exacerbated moves forcing USD/JPY below 1.19 for the first time in 2 weeks. With many markets closed for Easter Monday liquidity will remain thin and attentions will turn to US non-manufacturing numbers for direction through trade.
Data releases
AUD: No Data
NZD: No Data
JPY: Leading Indicators
GBP: No Data
EUR: Spanish Unemployment Change
USD: FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, Final Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI