The minutes of the 17-18 March FOMC meeting will be released at 14:00 ET on Wednesday. The March statement no longer referred to a “prudent” stance, but the growth forecast downgrades, the lower ‘dot plot’ trajectory, and the lower forecasts for full-employment (now 5.1% unemployment) gave the meeting a dovish tone.While it will be interesting to see how the FOMC members justified these adjustments, the minutes may look ‘stale’ as several important speeches since then (from Chair Yellen, Vice Chair Fischer, the New York Fed’s Dudley) were mostly on the dovish side. Reference to a “midyear” rate hike has given way to one “before year-end”. In addition, March payrolls were soft, vindicating the Fed’s current caution.

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