This week, the focus among
investors was on the ongoing trade talks, political issues, central bank
minutes, and a couple of economic data.
Politics
In the United States, it was
widely reported that special counsel Robert Mueller was in the final stages of
his investigation of the Trump campaign and his decision to fire James Comey.
Mueller has been investigating the campaign for almost two years. After he is
done with the investigation, he will submit the report to the Attorney General,
who will then submit it to congress. The investigation will come to an end,
even though the counsel has not interviewed key people such as Donald Trump,
Trump Jr, and Jared Kushner. Therefore, it is impossible to predict what will
be in the report. However, a report that indicts or one that provides a path to
impeachment will be a negative for the market at a time when the country is
having trade negotiations.
Trade Talks
This week, the trade talks
between the US and China continued. Yesterday, Chinese officials led by Liu He,
held meetings with their American counterparts with the goal of coming up with
a deal that will please the US and China. In the US, there are concerns that
Trump will cave in and accept a deal that does not have any meaningful reforms.
Xi Jinping is also under pressure in China not to give the US everything it
wants. This week’s meetings are the last ones before the March 1 deadline.
Central Bank Minutes
This week, a number of central
banks released the minutes of their past monetary policy meetings. The Reserve
Bank of Australia was the first one to release these minutes. They showed that
the country was facing increasing risks such as the falling house prices, low
inflation, and a prolonged drought. The Federal Reserve released its minutes on
Wednesday. The minutes showed that the Fed’s officials were prepared to end the
unwinding of the balance sheet this year. This is important because the balance
sheet has ballooned from under $1 trillion to more than $4 trillion. This was
followed by the ECB minutes, which showed that the officials had reduced their
worry about the economic outlook. This is despite the fact that recent data
from Europe present a bleak future for the union.
EU-US
Traders also focused on the EU
and US trade relations. Last week, Donald Trump was given a report from the
commerce department that will determine whether he will move on with the
tariffs. For decades, Trump has talked about how the European Union has taken
advantage of the United States. In the campaign, he said that he would put a
25% tariff on imported cars. His target in all this will be Germany, a country
that has the biggest trade surplus in the world. Experts believe that these
tariffs would have major implications on the European economy.
Economic Data
There was a number of important
data released this week. They included the US durable goods orders, UK’s
employment numbers, Japan trade data, Australia employment numbers, German
manufacturing numbers, and EU CPIs.
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