Market Roundup
- US Markit Comp Flash PMI Apr 57.4, previous 59.2
- US Markit Services Flash PMI Apr 57.8, consensus 59.0, previous 59.2
- Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing output index -4.7 in April vs -5.2 in March
- Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing index of general business activity -16.0 in April vs -17.4 in March
- Brazil 2015 inflation consensus 8.25 v 8.23% previous week, YE ’15 Selic rate steady at 13.25% (BCB poll)
- Mexico Trade Balance, USD Mar 0.48b, consensus 0.650b, previous 0.558b, factory exports lead by auto’s rise
- Mexico Jobless Rate Mar 3.86%, consensus 4.2%, previous 4.33%, at 2-yr low
- French jobless total rises by 15,400 in March
- Bank Of Israel says keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.10 percent
- ECB’s Constancio confident deal can be reached with Greece
- Greek PM Tsipras relegates FinMin Varoufakis to lesser role in negotiations
- ICM poll puts UK conservatives 3 pts ahead of Labour ahead of May 7 election, GBP firms
- Norway Cbank chief says doesn’t use word ‘bubble’ for Norway housing sector
- Norway Cbank chief lower oil sector investment to impact rest of Norwegian economy
- Norway C. Bank chief says currency is factor in determining monetary policy in may, June
Economic Data Ahead
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Retail Sales YY Mar (consensus -7.3%, previous -1.8%)
Key Events Ahead
- (1840 ET/ 2240 GMT) Australia RBA Gov Stevens speaks at Australian Financial Review Banking & Wealth Summit
FX Recap
EUR/USD: Greek government’s announcement of a re-shuffle of the negotiating party early in the European session, triggered a wave of buying interest in the single currency. EUR/USD hit fresh 3-week highs near 1.0930, but has surrendered part of the gains and is now deflating to the 1.0900/1.0890 area. Currently the pair is trading at 1.0883, up 0.10% on the day. Resistances are at 1.0928 (high Apr 27) followed by 1.0955 (high Apr 7) and finally 1.1036 (high Apr 6). Supports lie at 1.0819 (low Apr 27), 1.0789 (low Apr 24) and 1.0773 (21-d MA). Option expiries Tuesday 28th April: 1.0795-1.0800 (670M), 1.0885 (747M), 1.0900 (400M)
USD/CHF bottomed at 0.9493, the lowest level since April 3, in the early American session. Once again the area around 0.9490 capped the decline and the pair bounced to the upside, erasing losses. The pair failed to benefit from a weak US dollar. Currently USD/CHF trades at 0.9555/60, slightly higher for the day. Supports on the downside lie at 0.9469 and then 0.9446, while resistances are seen at 0.9583 and 0.9607.
GBP/USD: Uncertainty heading into elections will essentially keep the markets nervous around Sterling. Sterling hit seven-week high of $1.5225 after Ashcroft poll put conservatives 6 points ahead of labour in may 7 election. For now GBP/USD is bid on interest differentials and approaching key resistance. Currently the pair is trading at 1.5223 with a high of 1.5263 and a low of 1.5105. Option expiries Tuesday 28th April: 1.5150 (267M), 1.5185 (235M), 1.5250 (1.2BLN)
GBP/JPY: The pound is extending gains versus the yen. GBP/JPY reached 181.57, the strongest level since March 12, later pulled back modestly and was at 181.25/30, rising for the fourth time out of the last five trading days. The pair has risen more than 4% from the lows of the current month, located at 174.83 and continues to hold a bullish tone. GBP/JPY could face resistance at 181.65 (daily high), 182.35 (Mar 05 low) and 183.15. On the flipside supports might lie at 181.00 (Apr 24 high), 180.40 and 179.65.
USD/JPY: A weak US dollar dragged USD/JPY lower. The pair that early climbed to 119.43 retreated toward 119.00. Currently USD/JPY is trading at 119.08, 23 pips above Friday’s closing price but far from the highs and holding a bearish tone. Support levels might lie at 119.00, 118.75 (daily low) and 118.50/55 (last week lows), while resistance could be located at 119.40/45 (daily high), 119.80 and 120.00. Option expiries Tuesday 28th April: 119.00 (530M), 120.00 (610M)
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