Market Roundup
- US U Mich Sentiment Final Jun 96.1, (forecast 94.6, previous 94.6)
- US U Mich Conditions Final Jun 108.9, (forecast 106.7, previous 106.8)
- US U Mich Exp Final Jun 87.8, (forecast 86.9, previous 86.8)
- BR FGV Consumer Confidence Jun 83.9, (previous 85.1), Brazil data continues to disappoint
- MX Trade Balance SA May -1.803b, -1.224b-prev, factory exports plunge may hint at US weakness
- Markets focus on Eurogroup meeting Saturday
- Greek PM Tsipras calls cabinet meeting Friday evening to discuss bailout deal
- Greek government calls five-month extension offer “inadequate”, creditors decline Govt offer of having ESM take over ECB debt
- Germany’s Schaeuble (on Greece) if we only kick the can down the road the situation will be worse later
- Germany’s Merkel says she & Hollande urged Tsipras to accept generous offer from institutions
- BOE’s Carney markets should be aware of risk fixed income market liquidity drying up
Economic Data Ahead
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Industrial output prelim mm May (consensus -0.8%, previous 1.2%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead May (previous 0.5%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan IP Forecast 2 Mth Ahead May (previous -0.5%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Retail Sales YY May (consensus 2.3%, previous 5%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
EUR/USD is returning to the mid-1.1100s after testing the 1.1430 region just days ago. The single currency is snapping a positive 3-week streak this week. EUR/USD hit fresh 3-week lows and broke below the 1.1140 support area during the New York session as investors continue to monitor Greek developments. Greece remained the exclusive driver of global sentiment during recent weeks and markets will have to wait until tomorrow night for a continuation (or not) of the Greek saga. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1165, with next supports now seen at 1.1100 (psychological level), 1.1083 (Jun 8 low) and 1.1054 (100-day SMA). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.1219 (Jun 26 high), 1.1234/37 (Jun 24 high/20-day SMA) and 1.1263 (10-day SMA). Option expiries for Monday 29 June: 1.1100 (455M)
USD/JPY: US dollar strengthened across the board and pushed USD/JPY toward 124.00 as US bond yields soar. The pair reached a fresh daily high at 123.99 and currently trades at 123.77. Next weeks’ calendar holds the US nonfarm payrolls, a key event, while much attention will be paid to the outcome to these extended discussions in respect of Greece over the weekend. 125.00 level is likely to act as a pretty stiff resistance, while downside support looks quite solid around 122.00. Option expiries for Monday 29 June: 122.00 (2BLN), 123.50 (280M), 125.00 (484M)
GBP/USD: The British pound continues to trade sideways range-bound between 1.5715 and 1.5760. Cable is on track to close first negative week in June. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5737, down 0.07% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5770 and low at 1.5709. To the upside, it will find resistances at 1.5750, 1.5775 and 1.5800. On the downside, supports are at 1.5725, 1.5705 and 1.5690. Option expiries for Monday 29 June: 1.5800 (183M)
USD/CAD: The loonie has been the top performer on Friday. USD/CAD retreated sharply during the American session and erased all gains. The pair peaked at 1.2395 but lost strength and pulled back. The downside accelerated during the second half of the American session. Non-Farm Payroll report on Thursday (and also employment data on Wednesday) could impact on the US dollar significantly. While in Canada growth data will be publish on Tuesday. The pair is currently trading at 1.2316, with immediate support at 1.2274, then 1.2244 and 1.2213. Resistance on the upside is seen at 1.2425. Option expiries for Monday 29 June: 1.2430 (220M)
USD/MXN: The Mexican peso extended losses on Friday and is among the worst performers of the week. USD/MXN peaked during the American session at 15.585, the highest level since June 10, later pulled back modestly but remained near the 15.60 handle and closer to record highs that reached three weeks ago at 15.77. USD/MXN on track to post the second highest weekly close on record as MXN lost 1.5% during the week against the US dollar.
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