Market Roundup
- US Non-Farm Payrolls May +280k, (consensus 225k, previous +221k)
- US Unemployment Rate May 5.5%, (consensus 5.4%, previous 5.4%)
- US Average Earnings MM May 0.3%, (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.1%)
- US Participation Rate May 65.9% v 65.8%
- Canada May employment change increase to 58.9 k (consensus 10.0 k, previous -19.7 k)
- Canada May participation rate increase to 65.9 % (consensus 65.80 %, previous 65.80 %)
- Mexico May consumer confidence sa increase to 91.5 (previous 90.8)
- Fed’s Dudley does not see big gap between market expectations of rates & likely Fed path
- Fed’s Dudley concerned labor market may stall but still sees 2015 hike, worried strong job gains mask weak productivity, high levels of part-timers and long-term unemployed
- Greece’s Tsipras says we need end of austerity with debt relief; dismisses creditors’ plan
- Greek PM says this govt will not sign a new bailout, says we will not accept any agreement that does not include debt restructuring
- Greek PM says despite the massive backtracking, now we’re closer to a deal than ever
- Greek poll shows 60% of Greeks back govts negotiating strategy with lenders (opinion poll)
- OPEC agrees to maintain oil output target
- Reuters Poll 14/16 primary dealers see Fed Funds hike in Sept, 13/16 expect 2 hikes by YE ’15
Economic Data Ahead
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Bank Lending YY May (previous 2.6%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Current Account NSA JPY Apr (consensus 1696.4b, previous 2795.3b)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP Rev QQ Annualised Q1 (consensus 2.7%, previous 2.4%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP Revised QQ Q1 (consensus 0.7%, previous 0.6%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP Cap Ex Rev QQ Q1 (consensus 2.3%, previous 0.4%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Rev Q1 (previous 0.4%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP QQ External Demand Q1 (previous -0.2%)
- (0100 ET/ 0500 GMT) Japan Economy Watchers Poll May (previous 53.6)
- –:– China Exports YY May (consensus -5%, previous -6.4%)
- –:– China Imports YY May (consensus -10.7%, previous -16.2%)
- –:– China Trade Balance May (consensus 44.95b, previous 34.13b)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX RecapGBP/USD: Nonfarm payrolls report signaled a strengthening labor market, lifting investors’ expectations the Federal Reserve would raise rates before the year end. GBP/USD hit a low of 1.5189. The pound has managed to recover some ground versus the greenback and climbed back to the 1.5265 area before finding resistance. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.5270 with immediate resistances at 1.5370 (daily high), 1.5400 (psychological level) and 1.5441 (Jun 4 high). On the flipside, supports are seen at 1.5179 (Jun 2 low), 1.5168 (100-day SMA) and 1.5150 (May 6 low). Option expiries for Monday 8 June: 1.4900 (1.2BLN), 1.5150 (300M), 1.5415 (1BLN)
AUD/USD completely erased the weekly gains and fell nearly 100 pips as the dollar strengthened broadly following the release of better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data. At time of writing, the Aussie is trading at 0.7621, recovering slightly from the day’s lows. On the downside, immediate supports are seen at 0.7598 (Jun 1 low) and 0.7570 (Apr 15 low). On the upside, resistances could be found at 0.7729 (daily high) and 0.7785 (Jun 4 high). Option expiries for Monday 8 June: 0.7500 (400M), 0.7700-05 (280M)
USD/JPY rallied sharply and reached its highest level in 13 years as the dollar strengthened on the back of stronger than expected US nonfarm payrolls. USD/JPY has held form on the 125 handle and is now in very bullish territory both fundamentally and technically. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 125.70 zone, recording a 1.09% gain on the day. Next resistance is seen at 125.91 (Jun 2002 high), while immediate supports could be found at 124.33 (daily low) and 124.00 (psychological level). Option expiries for Monday 8 June: 124.00 (900M), 125.00 (1.1BLN), 125.25 (330M), 126.75 (540M)
EUR/USD: In spite of today’s sharp correction lower, EUR/USD is about to close the first week with gains after two consecutive weekly pullbacks. The pair is currently trading at 1.1113 with a high of 1.1289 and a low of 1.1049. Immediate support is seen at the 1.0875 region. To the upside, 1.1402 and the February highs of 1.1534 offer resistance. Option expiries for Monday 8 June: 1.1000 (904M), 1.1100 (1.3BLN), 1.1200 (2.3BLN)
EUR/GBP: Good data today from the U.S. docket took EUR/USD down from 1.1280 to 1.1050 and the EUR/GBP 0.7360 to 0.7268. This move has set a potential cap on the upside for now, below 0.7390 key resistance, regardless of concerns for continued austerity in the UK. The pair is currently trading at 0.7274 with a high of 0.7360 and a low of 0.7269.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com