“If history proves anything, it often repeats or at least rhymes. In the three GBP/USD declines highlighted below there was a six-quarter decline followed by a seventh quarter that marked the low. This occurred in the late 1970s, mid 1980s and in the early 2000s. Refuting a seventh quarter low is the accelerated 2008 decline, which saw 5/6 quarters decline with the sixth (1Q2009) making the final low.
In our view, recent quarterly price action is more similar to the prior highlighted occurrences”.
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