The domestic focus will be on the second estimate of GDP data for Q1, alongside the index of services for March. According to the first estimate, GDP expanded by a weaker-than-expected 0.3% in the first quarter. More timely data for industrial and construction output in Q1 are, as yet, insufficiently strong to warrant an upward revision to GDP overall. However, Q1 growth of 0.3% also assumes a relatively modest 0.5% gain in service sector output over the quarter. With scope for an upward revision to the surprising 0.2% drop in services output in January, the likelihood of an uprating of GDP growth is seen, to 0.4%. The second estimate will also provide a breakdown of expenditure components. Lloyds Bank anticipates a firm gain in consumption expenditure, as despite the moderation of retail spend in Q1 after a very strong Q4, the mapping is not close. Meanwhile, some offset is likely to come from a negative net trade contribution in Q1, with monthly trade data suggesting a relative weakening of exports.
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