Elections are some of the most
important fundamental issues that traders look at when making decisions. This
is because an election leads to changes in the fiscal policy of the countries
involved. For example, the election of Donald Trump ushered a new era of
corporate tax cuts and deregulation. The election of Emmanuel Macron in France
led to a paradigm shift and hopes for reforms in the European Union. In 2019,
traders will pay a close attention to a number of elections. This article will
look at some.
Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC)
DRC is one of the poorest
countries in the world. However, investors will pay close attention to the
election for two reasons. First, it will be the first election that the
incumbent president, Joseph Kabila will not be in the ballot. Second and most
importantly, the country is the most important producer of cobalt, a mineral
that is very important in the battery technology. As the world’s demand for
renewable energy increases, instability in the Congo may have major repercussions.
European Parliament
In May 2019, Europeans will elect
the Members of European Parliament (MEPs). This will be an important election
at a time when populism is rising in the EU. In recent weeks, Emmanuel Macron
has seen his approval rating drop to below 30% as demonstrations increase. In
Italy, the country is being ruled by a populist party. At the moment, a bill in
the EU parliament has caused tensions around the world because it would place liability
on online companies like Google for copywrite infringement. All these factors
will likely see a more populist EU parliament.
India
India’s Narendra Modi has been
credited for turning around the country and intensifying his fight against
corruption. In 2019, he will seek a re-election against Rahul Gandhi. Opinion
polls show that while Modi will likely win the election, he will do so by a
smaller margin. This will be an important election because India is the seventh
largest economy in the world.
Hong Kong
In 2019, Hong Kong will hold its
local elections. These elections are very important because of the important
role Hong Kong plays in Asia. It is the gateway for finance in China. This is
where western countries do transactions as they try to avoid the closely
watched China. As a result, Hong Kong is one of the leading cities in China.
Recently, there have been arrests and intimidation of the opposition parties in
the city as China flexes its muscle there.
Switzerland
A federal election will take
place in Switzerland in 2019. Switzerland has a unique system of conducting
elections where the 200 members of the council are elected from 20
constituencies. The 46 members of the council of states are elected from 20-2
seats states. The president is not elected in this process but is nominated by
the majority. This will be an important election because of the important role
that Switzerland plays in the world economy.
Canada
Canada will have an important
election in 2019 where incumbent Justin Trudeau will compete against the
conservative Andrew Scheer. Current opinion polls show that Trudeau will have
higher chances of winning the election. However, the election will be a test
about whether his immigration and liberal policies are working.
United Kingdom
No presidential election is
scheduled for the United Kingdom. However, there is a likelihood that the
country will go to an election in the year if Theresa May fails to secure the
required Brexit vote in parliament.
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