- Euro off highs but in recent ranges plays in between 1.1153/1228.
- USD/JPY retreats from 1-week high, trading from 123.32 to 123.96 range.
- UK June CBI Distributive Trades +29 vs 51 previous.
- Euro Zone Finance ministers will work with proposal from creditors on Greek deal as no agreed deal with Athens.
- ECB approves funding requested by Greek Central bank on ELA for Greek banks.
- Buba Weidmann expressed concern about continued ELA provision to Greek banks.
- Austrian Finance minister- If paper not agreed by Greece, has to look at alternatives.
- Austrian Finance minister- Getting harder by the minute, Sunday is final deadline.
- SNB Jordan- Franc considerably overvalued, ready to intervene in markets.
- Jordan Hopes U.S raises interest rates as soon as possible.
- JBIC Watanabe- USD unlikely to gain much further even if Fed hikes rates once/twice.
- JBIC’s Watanabe: Yen to move around current levels this year.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Initial Claims (weekly June 20) consensus 272k, previous 267k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Continued Claims (weekly June 13) consensus 2.215 mn, previous 2.222 mn.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Personal Income (May) consensus +0.5% m/m, previous +0.4% m/m.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Consumption Expenditures (May) consensus +0.7% m/m, previous 0.0% m/m.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Core PCE Deflator (May) consensus +0.1% m/m; previous +0.1% m/m, +1.2% y/y.
- (1045 ET/1445 GMT) US Markit Services PMI (flash Jun) consensus 56.7, previous 56.2.
- (1200 ET/1600 GMT) US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Production Index (Jun) previous -13.
- (1200 ET/1600 GMT) US Kansas City Fed Composite Index (Jun) previous -13.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) US Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Price Index (May) previous +1.9% y/y.
Key Events Ahead
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) Fed Governor Tarullo on “Conversation on the Economy/Financial Regulation” panel.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) Fed Governor Powell on “Building a Better Payments System”; Kansas City.
- (1145 ET/1545 GMT) Fed Trade operation 30-yr Ginnie Mae (max $925 mn).
- (1430 ET/1830 GMT) Fed Trade operation 15-yr Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (max $600 mn).
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported below 1.1200 levels and currently trading at 1.1178 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1226 and low at 1.1152 levels. The euro rose 0.1 pct against the dollar in European trading on Thursday but remained in recent ranges, with investors eyeing U.S. data for fresh cues and another impasse in last-minute Greek debt negotiations. The single currency has bounced around in the $1.09-$1.14 area in recent weeks. The latest German consumer confidence data dropped on the back of Greek tensions and sent the euro to an intraday low of $1.1153. The situation around the EU-Greece debt talks keeps deteriorating ahead of the Euro group meeting today, as rumours and counter-rumours on EU’s ultimatum to PM A.Tsipras regarding a new list of proposals keep building up. Initial support is seen around 1.1050 and resistance is seen around 1.1375 levels. Option expiries are at 1.1150 (459M), 1.1200 (453M), 1.1215 (467M).USD/JPY is supported below 124.00 levels and posted a high of 123.94 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.31 and currently trading at 123.45 levels. The pair fell in red as the US dollar ran through fresh offers amid on profit-taking amid a data-empty Asian calendar. Wednesday’s Euro group meeting ended without a deal and has been postponed until today which may boost the safe-haven bids in yen. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 122.10 levels. Option expiries are at 123.00 (1.37BLN), 123.50 (1.3BLN), 124.30 (355M), 125.00 (575M).GBP/USD is supported around $1.5700 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5724 and low at 1.5675 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5701 levels. The greenback slowly grabbed some momentum amid favourable US GDP data as sterling bulls took a nap after their previous strong rally. Today UK released CBI realised sales data at 29 mm vs previous at 51. The major now awaits fresh incentives from the US session later today in absence of significant economic data until US hours. Initial support is seen at 1.5624 and resistance is seen around 1.5835 levels.USD/CHF is supported around 0.9400 levels and trading at 0.9389 levels and made intraday low at 0.9323 and high at 0.9400 levels. Market is trading flat after Switzerland released UBS consumption indicator data to 1.73 m/m and favourable US final GDP data. Near term support is seen at 0.9113 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9383 levels. Option expiry is at 0.9285 (330M).AUD/USD is supported above 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7740 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7747 levels and low at 0.7695 levels. The Aussie also received fresh momentum from higher commodity prices with gold posing a solid recovery after a drop to fresh 2-week lows on Wednesday. While, the Greek story is set to continue, with Euro group officials meeting up for the third time this week to reach a Greek solution after yet again ending yesterday’s meeting in a no deal. The Aussie bulls took over complete control as markets view the recent decline as excessive ahead of a slew of US macro releases later today. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7838 levels. Option expiry is at 0.7700 (418M).
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