“1) You get the biggest bang for you buck from a rise in US 10year yields being long USD/JPY but you also get decent gains against AUD, NZD and SGD.
2) The correlation between US 10yr yields and GBP/USD and USD/MXN is fine, but the sign’s wrong. However, GBP/USD does respond very well to moves at the front end of the curve, reinforcing my bearish bias.
3) Higher US yields do correlate with falling EUR/USD, which is more than can be said for the Euros reaction to relative rate moves this year.
There is no significant correlation in 2016 between EUR/USD and either 2yr rate spreads, or 10year yield differentials (real or nominal), mostly because EUR/USD doesn’t actually move.
So I hold out little hope of EUR/USD doing more than meandering down within a narrow range, but I can see a case here, for longs in USD and MXN against either JPY, or AUD or SGD”.
Copyright © 2016 Societe Generale, eFXnews™
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