How deep are we going? I think deeper than many expect…
I have now been thinking since the 12th that a retest of that Marabozu was needed before we could move higher. I did not expect to go as high, and I am highly suspicious of the neck-breaking pace of sentiment change in the space. Too many loudly peeps out there for my liking, and this is an indicator as good as any other so I keep thinking this could turn into a lower low if the bears have it, and judging by the low volumes there are a lot of people waiting or hodling. I noticed today that the daily has once more dropped below 60 which was a level we had failed to pierce since the 20th of Dec until this latest rise. This might signal a continuation of the downtrend.
The red area is the potential neckline of a that would provide some symmetry and the outcome of that could result in either a retrace to the 0.5 fib of the recent leg up from the lows or a bounce back above $10k.
However, if we break down below that with force, we could continue to the pink box which would go some way to retracing that Marabuzo clearing the 0.236 fib and touching the long-term in place since Jul 2017 on a linear scale. This would provide us with a stronger platform to punch through the $10k barrier. I am acutely aware of the parallels with the past and this scenario would provide an amazing launching pad to repea the 2013/14 pattern so we can head for higher highs before retracing all the way to the bottom again.