How deep are we going? I think deeper than many expect…

How deep are we going? I think deeper than many expect…


I have now been thinking since the 12th that a retest of that Marabozu was needed before we could move higher. I did not expect to go as high, and I am highly suspicious of the neck-breaking pace of sentiment change in the space. Too many loudly bullish peeps out there for my liking, and this is an indicator as good as any other so I keep thinking this could turn into a lower low if the bears have it, and judging by the low volumes there are a lot of people waiting or hodling. I noticed today that the daily RSI has once more dropped below 60 which was a level we had failed to pierce since the 20th of Dec until this latest rise. This might signal a continuation of the downtrend.

The red area is the potential neckline of a H&S that would provide some symmetry and the outcome of that could result in either a retrace to the 0.5 fib of the recent leg up from the lows or a bounce back above $10k.

However, if we break down below that with force, we could continue to the pink box which would go some way to retracing that Marabuzo clearing the 0.236 fib and touching the long-term trendline in place since Jul 2017 on a linear scale. This would provide us with a stronger platform to punch through the $10k barrier. I am acutely aware of the parallels with the past and this scenario would provide an amazing launching pad to repea the 2013/14 pattern so we can head for higher highs before retracing all the way to the bottom trend line again.

The bearish case here is that we are retracing to the low trendline before we can reach ATHs again which is potentially $4,500.