Morning Report: 07.45 London
- This morning, the US dollar index continues to retreat despite a largely positive outlook painted by the US Federal reserve. The outlook is complicated owing to the dollar’s safe haven status which means it is in less demand as outlooks brighten. At the same time, the Fed may have pointed to some positives in the economy, but the next rate hike date keeps being shifted further into the future along with subsequent increases.
- The USD/JPY is also on the back foot as money flows from the dollar.
- Elsewhere, the pound rose yesterday on the back of better than expected quarterly GDP data. The gains were tempered by surveys which pointed to a gloomier outlook going forward.
- The euro continues to perform well, though rallying hard against the dollar yesterday and the pound.
- Elsewhere, the Australian dollar continues its positive if the volatile is weak.
Coming up today:
- Coming up today, we have Spanish unemployment rate at 08.00 and the German unemployment change at 08.55.
- US unemployment claims then follow at 13.30.
Trade Idea:
- Oil prices continue to sink as over capacity stalks energy markets.
- By contrast, the USD/CAD has pulled back, largely as a result of the weaker dollar. The latter effect may be temporary, while lower oil prices have been a more persistent problem.
- We could, therefore, see more upside for the USD/CAD in the coming month.
- A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the USD/CAD will close above 1.3175 in 35 days time for a potential return of 121%.
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