FXStreet (Guatemala) – Sean Callow. analyst at Westpac Banking corporation noted the key events taking place in the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
“Australia’s private capital expenditure report (11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK) includes potentially market-moving readings on both actual Q3 spending and investment plans for 2015/16. The initial AUD response is usually to the reading on total capex for the quarter. The median forecast on Bloomberg is -2.9% q/q, with Westpac on -4%. In the breakdown, we are more interested in the plant & equipment component, which we see about flat q/q, than the building & structures spending, which we expect to have fallen 6% q/q. The latter does not match well with the same segment of GDP, due on Wed.
Perhaps the more durable influence on AUD will be the 4th estimate of investment plans for 2015/16, with the survey conducted from Oct to early Nov. In the 3rd estimate, total capex was seen at A$115bn, about -23% y/y. This was a weak outcome, with services particularly disappointing, -6% y/y.
This week RBA governor Stevens argued that “prospects for firmer conditions in the non-mining economy are improving”. If so, then we should see at least a “less weak” survey today. There is plenty of room for surprise, from say $111bn on the bearish side to $117bn for a similar reading to the previous survey and $123bn for an upside surprise.
The market median forecast of $120bn seems reasonable, with mining investment plans still steeply negative but services to improve from -6% y/y in the previous survey. This would reinforce the RBA’s wary optimism at Tuesday’s meeting.”
“In Asia, we will see Philippines Q3 GDP, expected to remain strong at 1.4% q/q, 6.3% y/y and Singapore’s Oct IP. Consensus is +2% m/m, -5.3% y/y but it has surprised to the downside every month since June inclusive. The European calendar is light ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday.”
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