We forecast that nonfarm payrolls increased by 160k in November, comparable with the gains seen in October. We expect a modest rise of 5k in government payrolls, implying that private payrolls increased by 155k. Incoming data on the labor market, for the most part, imply steady employment activity with limited involuntary layoffs in NovemberWe expect the unemployment rate to decline further to 4.8% in November. On wages, we expect growth in average hourly earnings to slow to 0.1% m-o-m (2.7% y o-y) following a sharp increase of 0.4% m-o-m in the previous month. We think that the prior month’s strong wage growth was artificially amplified by inclement weather holding down the average weekly hours worked during the survey reference period. To that end, we think that some payback is warranted in November as conditions returned back to normal.
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