Technical Outlook for Bullion and WTI Crude Oil
$GLD, $USO
Gold Bullion
$GLS
Spot Gold reached 1300.00 oz for the 1st time in 15 months, up over 22% YTD.
Gains in the commodity have been supported by several reasons in Q-1, Gold ran on a flight to safety due to fears of a global economic slowdown. But as conditions, and sentiment improved, the precious Yellow metal continued to gain, bolstered by a weaker USD and the US Fed delaying an interest rate hike.
Now trading around $ 1,289.68, spot Gold gave back all of its daily gains, but is above March high of 1,283.50, the support mark to break to see a deeper downward corrective movement beyond some intra-day profit taking.
From a technical outlook
The daily shows that the price remains above its MA’s, and the daily ascendant trend line that led the advance since early February.
The technical indicators in frame are retreating partially from near overbought readings, but are far from suggesting a stronger Southward move.
Near term and according to the 4 hours, the corrective movement can extend towards the Key support, as the technical indicators turned South in extreme overbought levels and maintain their Bearish slopes, as the price develops well above its MA’s, indicating limited room for declines.
Support marks: 1,283.50 1,271.10 1,262.30
Resistance marks: 1,297.10 1,308.40 1,319.25
WTI Crude Oil
$USO
In spite of Dollar weakness, Crude Oil prices fell Monday, with US WTI Crude Oil futures back below 45.00 bbl, on speculation OPEC output rose in April to near all time highs.
According to a industry survey, OPEC pumped 32.64-M BPD in April, + 170,000 BPD from its March output.
Following the news, speculators ran to take profits out from the latest rally, sending WTI Crud Oil to a daily low of 44.53.
Black Gold eased around 3%, after adding roughly 20% in April, and the daily shows that the price continues developing well below a Bullish 20-Day SMA, currently around 43.25
The RSI retreated from overbought marks and heads South to around 61, and the Momentum indicator remains flat above 100, not enough at this point to confirm further declines.
In the 4 hours, the risk is of further declines, as the technical indicators head lower below their mid-lines, as the price broke below its 20-Day SMA, currently at 45.60. A clear break below Monday’s daily low should open way for a continued decline Tuesday, towards the 43.00/30 region.
Support marks: 44.50 43.80 43.20
Resistance marks: 45.60 46.10 46.75
Stay tuned…
Paul Ebeling
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