For the May employment report, scheduled for release on Friday, June 5, Barclays expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 225k, for private payrolls to increase by 200k, and for government payrolls to grow by 5k. Factors influencing the forecast include both initial and continuing claims, both of which fell sharply in May relative to April. The insured unemployment rate of 1.6% is a recovery level low. “We expect the unemployment rate to fall by one-tenth to 5.3% and for average hourly earnings to rise by 0.2% m/m. This would leave average hourly earnings up 2.1% y/y. Elsewhere, we look for average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.5 hours.” – adds Barclays
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