In the aftermath of the most recent terrorist attack in France, prospects for a calm future in the country plagued by outbreaks of terrorism appear grim.
Just a week ago, even before the tragic event in Nice, the French General Director for Internal Security Patrick Calvar told members of the French parliamentary commission that thanks to the increasing frequency of sexual assaults by islamic migrants, “Extremism is growing everywhere… We are on the brink of civil war.” Then two days ago, Calvar doubled down, warning an increasingly questioned Hollande that an inevitable confrontation between the far right and Muslims looms, posing more of a threat than terrorism.
It appears his warning was well-founded. Earlier today, the French military intelligence announced that it estimates that about 100 foreign fighters are entering Syria from Turkey each week to join the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. “According to the Direction for Military Intelligence (DRM) in Paris, each week, about 100 foreigners continue to cross Turkey into Syria to join Islamic State,” French newspaper Le Figaro reported Wednesday, according to Reuters.
From there, the militarized jihadis then use the “migrant flow”, as Merkel herself admitted one week ago, to enter Europe, ending up in places like France and Germany.
The estimate is also likely to raise scrutiny on Turkey’s effectiveness as a partner in the fight against ISIS, in particular following a failed military coup attempt last week. It is also certain to further propel support for anti-immigration candidate Marine Le Pen ahead of next year’s presidential elections.
On Sunday, French foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said that he expected the coalition to raise questions about Turkey’s efforts during a meeting hosted by U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter in Washington on Wednesday, the Hill reported. British Secretary of Defense Michael Fallon said Wednesday at a breakfast with defense reporters before the meeting that the coup attempt hasn’t had a direct impact yet on the ISIS campaign along Turkey’s border with northern Syria.
He added that Turkey would not have “any less interest in sealing the border with Syria,” but added, “obviously we’ll be watching.” In late April, a U.S. military official said about 200 foreign fighters per month were joining ISIS, down from more than 2,000 per month. The U.S. military updated its estimate in late June to between 200 and 500 per month.
Meanwhile, the real tragedy in Turkey continues as Erdogan has used what now appears to many a staged coup to centralize power, and eliminate virtually all political enemies. As a reminder, we previously documented that one of the biggest sources of funding for the Islamic State was none other than Erdogan’s close circle, including his son Bilal. It is a virtual certainly that with no opposition left, Erdogan will continue to provide ISIS with whataver strategic assistance he deems necessary for the right price.
So far not a single western nation and/or Turkey ally has publicly slammed what is an unprecedented putsch by a “democratic” country.
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