https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.0

From the 6000 (Bitfinex) lows set on 06-FEB-2018, Bitcoin             has rallied +90% to $11,250 taking out the psychological $10,000 level.

The 12-day bounce has been fairly broad-based across the majority of the top 10 marketcap cryptocurrencies which have been partaking in the rally.

Barring any wave extensions and subdivisions, there now appears enough waves to suggest the rally is complete. Price action seems to have found resistance just shy of 11306, which represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 17-DEC-2017 —the bull market peak.

Preliminary weakening price action suggests the rally is complete; and next leg of the bear market, the second crash wave, may be commencing.

In regards to the psychological state of mind: Taking out 8000 would reaffirm the ‘fear’ phase. Taking out the 6000 lows would represent the ‘capitulation’ stage —where mass media hysterics peak and exchange outages occur. The 78.6% retracement of the entire market at 4257 begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs.

From a political and socionomic standpoint, the following events (termed as “FUD” by millennials) may begin to unravel during the second leg of the bear market:

—Further laws/bans/restrictions upon cryptocurrencies invoked by countries/governments, calling for tighter regulation and fraud prevention: positive rulings, but perceived as negatives.
—Prolonged exchange outages preventing deposits/withdrawals and management of positions.
—Exposure and collapse of further Ponzi schemes.
—Majority of Altcoins currently under $2,000,000,000 market capitalization becoming extinct.
—Mergers & acquisitions of crypto companies in the endeavour to survive.
—Individual bankruptcies and suicides.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes).

Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin             between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.

Given the aforementioned criteria, 2 long-term short positions have been ordered with exact stops, but varying target limits:
—One with a target profit at 4257 which represents 78.6% retracement of the entire market; and,
—One with no target, i.e. an open-ended short position to ride the bear market.

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10522
CLOSE: 4257
STOP: 11250
RISK: 7%
REWARD: 60%

If 11250 is taken out to the upside, it would suggest further wave subdivisions, and the rally is extending. Next areas of Fibonacci resistance clusters as follows:

@11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017
@11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018
@11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652).

Esoteric footnote: The first leg of the cryptocurrency bear market began on 17-DEC-2017, during a New Moon and leading up to the New Year. Should the second leg of the cryptocurrency bear market be commencing as of 18-FEB-2018, it would do so under a New Moon leading up to the Chinese New Bear.

Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure, not time:

https://i.imgur.com/Y5c0ifn.png
https://i.imgur.com/tak0BrA.png
https://i.imgur.com/XqyBEK1.png