The key economic releases this week are retail sales on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress on Thursday.
As markets continue to digest the implications of the US election outcome, there is a host of data and Central Bank communication adding to the running narrative with Fed speakers appearing on every single day of the week. In addition to barrage of daily Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get US inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed.
But it’s not the data that will be the primary focus this week, it’s the Fed speakers who are as follows:
- Monday: Kaplan; Lacker; Williams
- Tuesday: Rosengren; Tarullo; Fischer
- Wednesday: Bullard; Kashkari; Harker
- Thursday: Dudley; Yellen; Brainard; Evans
- Friday: Bullard; George; Kaplan; Powell
In data: In the US focus will be on inflation data and retail sales, while across the pond we get labor market, inflation and retail sales data from the UK. The Euro area releases are more backward looking so focus will tilt towards ECB communication. Meanwhile in Australia, while the RBA Minutes are unlikely to add much new information, the labor market report will likely show employment growth falling for the third consecutive quarter. This should be an important reminder for the RBA policy outlook that there is still spare capacity in the labor market and weak wages growth.
In Central Bank speakers: A wealth of Central Bank speakers on the calendar this week should keep markets busy looking for hints on their intentions and reactions to the US election result. Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee and speeches from ECB President Draghi and BoJ Governor Kuroda will likely gain the most attention.
In the US, in addition to a number of Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed.
In the Eurozone, data will be predominantly backward looking with the second estimate of EZ 3Q GDP and a first look at Q3 for Germany and Italy. Multiple ECB speakers on the calendar including President Draghi.
In the UK, this week’s three key data releases are labor market, inflation and retail sales. We also hear from Carney and Shafik testifying on the November QIR.
In Australia, the RBA releases the minutes of the November meeting, but labor market data will be more significant. In New Zealand we get a range of activity data – house sales (Oct), retail volumes (3Q), job ads and consumer confidence.
In Japan, Q3 GDP the only release of note, but we do hear from BoJ Governor Kuroda.
In Canada, inflation and factory sales are the main data releases.
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DB’s Jim Reid breaks down the main events in the coming busy week by day:
- In terms of data, it’s a very quiet start to the week today with the only data this morning in Europe being the industrial production report for the Euro area. There’s nothing due out in the US this afternoon.
- We kick off tomorrow morning in Germany where the preliminary Q3 GDP report will be released. Shortly after that we get CPI in France and the full inflation data dump in the UK. Thereafter we get Q3 GDP for the Euro area and the November ZEW survey out of Germany. We’ve got important data in the US tomorrow too with October retail sales, September business inventories, November empire manufacturing and also the October import price index.
- Turning to Wednesday, the early data comes from the UK again with the September and October employment report. It’s another busy session in the US on Wednesday with October PPI, industrial and manufacturing production and also the NAHB housing market index print for this month.
- We kick off Thursday in France again where we’ll get Q3 employment numbers. Thereafter the UK reports October retail sales data before we get the final October CPI revisions for the Euro area. Over in the US on Thursday the big focus will be on the October CPI report, while housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed PMI round off another busy day.
- Friday morning it’s the turn of China where the October property prices data will be out. Over in Europe the only data of note is the PPI report in Germany while in the US we finish the week with the leading index and Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
Away from the data, it’s an absolutely packed week for Fedspeak. Today we have Kaplan, Lacker and Williams all speaking tonight. Tomorrow we have Rosengren, Tarullo, Fischer and Kaplan all speaking from midday. On Wednesday it’s the turns of Bullard, Kashkari and Harker. Thursday is the big one with Fed Chair Yellen testifying before the Joint Economic Committee, while Brainard will also speak. On Friday we’ve also got Bullard, George and Kaplan on the cards. Meanwhile, over at the ECB we will hear from President Draghi today when he attends an event in Rome. With it also being Euro Finance week there is a steady stream of speakers throughout the week in Frankfurt. This year’s conference is called “Brexit, Banking, Bubbles – Chances and Risks in the New Normal”. If that wasn’t enough, in the UK BoE Governor Carney is scheduled to testify before Parliament on Tuesday. The other event to note is the scheduled meeting between President-elect Trump and Japanese PM Abe on Thursday.
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Focuing only on the US, here is Goldman with a detailed breakdown of US events and expectations:
Monday, November 14
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, Q4
01:20 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A focused on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve at the Wichita Falls Annual Economic Forum in Texas. President Kaplan will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017.
05:00 PM Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker will take part in a panel discussion on the topic “Our Fiscal Health: How the National Debt Could Impact the Future of America’s Youth” at Washington College in Maryland. Media Q&A is scheduled in advance of the event at 4:30 PM.
06:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will take part in a panel discussion at the Bay Area Council in San Francisco. Audience Q&A is expected.
Tuesday, November 15
07:30 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren will give the keynote address on “The Economy’s Progress and Outlook” at the Portland Chamber of Commerce in Maine.
08:30 AM Retail sales, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Core retail sales, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%): We expect headline retail sales to rise 0.5% after gasoline prices continued to rise in October. Core retail sales are likely to increase by 0.3% after a soft September figure which reflected modest weakness in a number of categories. For Q3, core retail sales growth slowed notably, rising at an annualized rate of 1.1%, versus 6.7% in Q2.
08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, November (consensus -2.0, last -6.8): Consensus expects the Empire manufacturing survey to move up but remain at contractionary levels in November. In the October report, the Empire manufacturing survey weakened and most of the underlying components remained at contractionary levels.
08:30 AM Import price index, October (consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%): Consensus expects the import price index to increase by 0.4% in October. In September, the headline index advanced 0.1%, boosted by higher fuel prices.
9:00 AM Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo will give a speech on “Finance and the Economy” at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council in Washington.
10:00 AM Business inventories, September (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%): Consensus expects a 0.2% increase in inventory levels in September.
01:30 PM Federal Reserve Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give the keynote speech at a Brookings Institution event on the topic, “Do we have a liquidity problem post-crisis?” in Washington D.C.
01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter speaks): Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Kaplan will give a speech at the North American Strategy for Competitiveness Conference in Dallas, Texas.
Wednesday, November 16
03:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will participate in a panel on “Monetary Policy after QE: Helicopter Money or Back to Raising Rates?” at the UBS European Conference 2016 in London. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
07:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will give a speech at the New York Economic Club. President Kashkari will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017.
08:30 AM PPI final demand, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PPI ex-food and energy, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, October (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%): We expect PPI to increase by 0.3% after a firmer than expected September report. The headline PPI index moved higher in part due to higher energy and goods prices.
09:15 AM Industrial production, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%):; Manufacturing production, October (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Capacity utilization, October (GS 75.5%, consensus 75.5%, last 75.4%): We expect industrial production to increase 0.3% (mom) in October following a 0.1% gain in the prior month.
10:00 AM Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations, November (last +1.7%)
10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, October (consensus 63, last 63): The NAHB Housing Market Index—which we have found to be a decent leading indicator of housing starts—declined in September but remained near post-crisis highs. Consensus expects the index to be unchanged in October.
4:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows, September (last +$73.8bn)
05:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will give a speech on the purposes and function of the Federal Reserve in Philadelphia. Audience and media Q&A is expected. President Harker will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017.
Thursday, November 17
08:30 AM CPI (mom), October (GS +0.37%, consensus +0.40%, last +0.29%): Core CPI (mom), October (GS +0.21%, consensus +0.20%, last +0.11%); CPI (yoy), October (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.5%) ;Core CPI (yoy), October (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.2%): We expect that core CPI rose by 0.21% in October or 2.2% on a year-on-year basis. In September, core CPI rose by a smaller than expected 0.11%, due to a decline in apparel and wireless telephone prices. We estimate headline consumer prices increased by 0.37% last month, partially driven by higher energy prices, after CPI rose 0.29%. On a year-on-year basis, the headline index likely increased by 1.7%.
08:30 AM Housing starts, October (GS +11.0%, consensus +10.3%, last -9.0%); Building permits, October (consensus -2.9%, last +6.3%); We expect that housing starts recovered by 11.0% in October, following a substantial 9.0% decline in September that was largely driven by a 38% drop in the volatile multifamily starts category. Consensus expects new permits to decline by 2.9% after a stronger than expected 6.3% gain in September.
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 12 (GS 255k, consensus 256k, last 254k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 5 (last 2,041k): We expect initial jobless claims to tick up to 255k from 254k. Last week, claims declined by more than anticipated. Much of the decline last week was accounted for by drops in Missouri and Kentucky after auto plant shutdowns in the prior week led to a temporary boost in claims.
08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, November (GS +8.0, consensus +8.0, last +9.7): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey to edge down to +8.0 in November after the index declined by 3.1pt to +9.7 in November.
08:50 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will give opening remarks at the New York Fed’s Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance.
10:00 AM Federal Reserve Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee on the economic outlook.
12:30 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on “The Evolution of Work and the Increase in Alternative Work Arrangements” at the Forum on the Evolution of Work event sponsored by the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors, Freelancers Union, and New York Fed.
02:45 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will give opening remarks at the 11th Annual Community Bankers Symposium in Chicago. President Evans will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017.
Friday, November 18
05:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will give a speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
09:30 AM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will give a speech at a joint conference held by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City on “Oil and the Economy: Adapting to a New Reality” in Houston, Texas. Audience Q&A is expected.
10:00 AM Leading indicators, October (consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%)
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, November (last +6)
01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will give a speech at the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City’s joint conference on “Oil and the Economy: Adapting to a New Reality” in Houston, Texas. Audience Q&A is expected. President Kaplan will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017.
09:45 PM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will give a speech on “The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia” at the Center for Pacific Basin Studies 2016 Research Conference held in San Francisco.
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Source: BofA, DB. GS
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