AAII Sentiment Survey Results For Frame Ended 14 October 2015
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are Bullish, Bearish, and Neutral on the stock market for the next 6 months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership weekly. Just 1 vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting frame.
Data represents what direction members feel the stock market will be in the next 6 months.
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Update
This week’s Sentiment Survey results:
Neutral: +4.5
Bearish: -1.0
Neutral: 30.96%
Bearish: 30.30%
Commentary
Pessimism among individual participants fell to a 3-month low in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism declined too, Neutral sentiment rose.
Bullish sentiment
Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next 6 months, pulled back by 3.4 percentage points to 34.1%. The decline follows last week’s reading of 37.5%, which was the highest level of optimism recorded by our survey since 26 March 2015. The decline puts Bullish sentiment below its historical average of 39.0% for a record 32nd consecutive week.
Neutral sentiment
Expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next 6 months, rose 4.5 percentage points to 38.8%. The increase keeps Neutral sentiment above its historical average of 31.0% for the 5th week running, and the 39th week this year.
Bearish sentiment
Expectations that stock prices will fall over the next 6 months, declined 1.0 percentage points to 27.1%. The historical average is 30.0%.
Pessimism is now at its lowest mark since 23 July 2015 (25.6%). Since rising to 39.9% 2 weeks ago, bearish sentiment has fallen by 12.8 percentage points. The drop comes as the S&P 500 has rebounded from its late-September lows and recently closed at its highest mark since 20 August 2015.
Even though there is optimism on the part of some individual participants that a bottom in the market has been set, sentiment overall remains mixed. Some AAII members bought on the dips while others increased their cash positions. Impacting AAII members’ 6-month outlook for stocks are global and international events, US monetary policy, technical factors, US politics and the pace of US economic growth.
This week’s special question asked AAII members for their opinion of the current pace of economic growth.
- 21% expressed disappointment or frustration, using words such as anemic, sluggish, lackluster and poor
- 17% said growth is slow
- 13% said economic growth is either very slow or stagnant
- 7% said growth is either at an acceptable or adequate given the ongoing headwinds.
Charles Rotblut, CFA, AAII Journal
HeffX-LTN
Paul Ebeling, Editor
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