AAII Sentiment Survey Results For Frame Ended 4 November 2015
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are Bullish, Bearish, and Neutral on the stock market for the next 6 months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership weekly. Just 1 vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting frame.
Data represents what direction members feel the stock market will be in the next 6 months.
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Update
Bullish: 39.0%, + 1.4
Neutral: 42.4%, +3.4
Bearish: 18.6%, -2.0
Change from last week:
Bullish: -1.4
Neutral: +3.4
Bearish: -2.0
Long-Term Average:
Bullish: 38.73%
Neutral: 30.97%
Bearish: 30.29%
Commentary
Pessimism among individual participants about the short-term direction of stocks fell to its 2nd-lowest level of the year in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, Neutral sentiment rose to a 3-month high, while optimism pulled back to its historical average.
Bullish sentiment
Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next 6 months, declined by 1.4 percentage points to 39.0%, essentially matching its historical average. This is 3rd time optimism has been at or above 39% on consecutive weeks since February 12 through March 5, 2015.
Neutral sentiment
Expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next 6 months, rose 3.4 percentage points to 42.4%. The increase puts Neutral sentiment at its highest mark since 6 August 2015. This is the 8th week running, and the 42nd week this year that Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0%.
Bearish sentiment
Expectations that stock prices will fall over the next 6 months, fell 2.0 percentage points to 18.6%. Pessimism was last lower on 19 February 2015 (17.9%). This is the 5th week running with a Bearish sentiment reading below the historical average of 30.0%, the longest such streak since 9 April through 4 June 2015.
At current marks, pessimism is at an unusually low level and Neutral sentiment is at an unusually high level.
Though low levels of Bearish sentiment may seem like a contrary indicator, the average under performance of the S&P 500 over the following 26- and 52-week periods has not been significant.
Unusually high levels of Neutral sentiment have been associated with better-than-average S&P 500 performance.
As the S&P 500 has rebounded off of its late September lows, pessimism has fallen by a cumulative 21.3 percentage points. Optimism has increased by a much smaller amount; 10.9 percentage points.
Northside price momentum, seasonal trends, and potentially better-than-forecast Q-3 earnings surprises are having a positive impact. Nonetheless, some AAII members remain concerned about global and international events, particularly China as well as global economic weakness, US monetary policy, US politics and the pace of US economic growth.
By Charles Rotblut, CFA, AAII Journal
Paul Ebeling, Editor
HeffX-LTN
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