Australian Dollar:
The Australian Dollar opens weaker this morning at AUD/USD0.7668 after concluding a tumultuous week of trade. Declining commodity prices and concerns for the economic health of Australia’s largest trading partner, China, weighed down on the AUD, however last week’s retails sales figures and the RBA decision to keep rates on hold helped bolster demand for the domestic currency mid-week. With no local economic announcements due for release today the Aussie will look overseas for direction. Chinese trade balance data that is tentatively booked in looks to have the most significant effect on the dollar.
We expect a range today of 0.7630 – 0.7710
New Zealand Dollar:
Last week’s trade saw the Kiwi experience substantial volatility with intra-week highs of NZD/USD 0.7615 countered by lows of NZD/USD 0.7492. With very little happening on the domestic front the large movements were mostly dictated by overseas market reports such as US manufacturing data, and dovish rhetoric from the US Fed Reserve. Investors will be eyeing Chinese trade balance figures during today’s trade to look for any signs on China’s current economic health. The Kiwi commences trade today buying 75.14 US cents.
Great British Pound:
The Cable was sent on a downward spiral last week and starts today much lower at GBP/USD 1.4620. The main contributing factors to the Pounds depreciation in value against its major counterparts were the trade balance figures, and the Bank of England decision to keep interest rates on hold. The printed figures showing that Britain’s trade deficit widened much more than expected in February hinted that the economic recovery may be losing momentum, and rates being put on hold suggests that the central bank is waiting to see if a recent fall in inflation is short lived, or if it will perhaps develop into a more serious threat to the economy. With an empty economic docket on the cards today traders will anxiously await CPI figures scheduled for release tomorrow.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 1.9010 – 1.9090
Majors:
The EUR slid against a handful of it major counterparts throughout trade last week, and opens today at EUR/USD 1.0590. Ongoing concerns for Greece’s future in the Eurozone continue to take its toll on the EUR, with German Chancellor Merkel stating that although they want Greece to remain in the 13 currency bloc, there are apprehensions that time is running short to reach an agreement regarding Greece’s monumental debt. In what is gearing up to be an actioned packed week for the Greenback, this week the local US currency looks to a myriad of domestic data for direction i.e. retail sales data, inflation figures, unemployment figures, and consumer sentiment.
Data releases:
CNY: Trade Balance
EUR: Italian Industrial Production m/m
JPY: Core Machinery Orders m/m, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, M2 Money Stock y/y, PPI y/y
USD: Federal Budget Balance