Frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will both face fresh tests on Tuesday, in their respective quests for their party’s presidential nomination.
Trump put on a respectable, if less spectacular performance on Saturday, prevailing in Louisiana and Kentucky but falling to Ted Cruz in Kansas and Maine. As Bloomberg writes, “Trump’s victories also were narrower than polling had indicated, suggesting that attacks on his crude language and ill-defined policies from 2012 nominee Mitt Romney and others could be having an impact.”
Maybe.
Or it could simply “suggest” polling error or the simple fact that blowing the field away by 20 points in every state simply isn’t realistic – even for a tycoon juggernaut with a groundswell of popular support and a “great head of hair.” Or, as The New York Times puts it, devoid of our trademark humor, “it is not clear whether he struggled to win because he had lost ground or because anti-Trump voters had consolidated around Mr. Cruz. [because] Mr. Trump’s share of the vote on Saturday was roughly in line with what he had won on Super Tuesday.”
In any event, Trump still holds a commanding lead going into contests to be held today in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii. Here’s what the delegate count looks like currently:
As the Democrats head into contests in Mississippi and Michigan, here’s how the delegates shape up:
Make no mistake, Michigan is the biggest prize for both parties today.
A Monmouth University poll shows Trump with a commanding 36-23% lead over Cruz, who is urging GOP voters to back him as he is now the only candidate capable of derailing The Donald. “It’s easy to talk about making America great again. You can even print that on a baseball cap, but the critical question is, do you understand the principles and values that made America great in the first place?” Cruz asked last night, at a rally.
But Trump’s support among the white working class who feel left out in the cold by outsourcing and the inexorable decline of the American manufacturing sector will likely carry the day for the billionaire.
(Trump speaks in Michigan last Friday)
“Trump appeals especially to the blue-collar voters in areas such as Macomb County north of Detroit, home of automotive plants and parts supplies and mostly white, union-member voters,” Stu Sandler, a Republican consultant from Ann Arbor who is not affiliated with any of the candidates, told Bloomberg. “Donald Trump’s campaign has fixed like a laser on working-class voters, and I think it’s really paid off,” he said.
For his part, John Kasich needs to perform well. “He has staked his presidential campaign on winning his home state, and Michigan’s industrial base and working-class roots bear similarities to the Buckeye State,” Bloomberg notes. “Kasich is betting that a strong finish in Michigan, followed by a victory a week later in Ohio with its 66 delegates, will prevent Trump from getting the needed delegates and start a new phase of the campaign.”
Make no mistake folks, that’s a pipe dream.
Here’s an aggregated poll from RealClearPolitics:
On the Democratic side of the coin, Hillary is 13 points ahead of “The Bern” in Michigan. “On paper, Michigan should be a good state for Mr. Sanders,” The New York Times notes, explaining that it’s “a white, working-class state that has been ravaged by outsourcing and ought to be receptive to Mr. Sanders’s message on economic issues.”
“It is also a fairly liberal state, with big college towns like Ann Arbor and Lansing,” The Times adds. But Sanders will need a dramatic come from behind win. Clinton is once again dominate when it comes to the African American vote and the elderly in Michigan clearly aren’t “feeling The Bern” either. Here’s the breakdown from Monmouth:
Hillary Clinton currently holds a 55% to 42% lead over Bernie Sanders in the Michigan Democratic primary. Clinton enjoys a solid edge among non-white voters (68% to 27%), who make up more than one-fourth of the likely electorate. Clinton (49%) and Sanders (48%) are virtually tied among white voters. Clinton has a 57% to 40% lead among voters who earn less than $50,000 a year, and a 54% to 42% lead among those who earn $50,000 or more. Sanders holds a solid lead (58% to 39%) among voters under the age of 50, but this is offset by Clinton’s more than 2-to-1 advantage among voters age 50 and older (65% to 31%).
As far as Sanders’ attempt to tie Hillary to trade deals that have cost Michigan manufacturing jobs, the former Secretary of State has proven to be teflon. “You would think that it would be a fertile issue in Michigan,” said the publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. “But it seems that Democrats are willing to give Clinton a pass on it.”
(fear the blue pantsuit)
As an aside, it seems like Clinton “gets a pass” on quite a bit.
In any event, Michigan polls close at 8 p.m. local time. Stay tuned here for live coverage and the results, which we suspect will show a thorough “schlogning” on the GOP side and a rather decisive “burn” for “The Bern” on the Democratic ticket.
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