Australian Dollar:
The AUD commences trade marginally weaker this morning buying only 78.90 US cents as April NAB business confidence figures reported yesterday come in unchanged due to uncertainty regarding the current state of the economy. The main issues underlined by NAB were unemployment, consumer sentiment, and growth, which when announced then witnessed the Aussie drift back to intraday lows of 0.7873. Moving forward into local economic news today the Annual Budget release will be thrust into in the limelight as investors and traders alike will pay close attention to this announcement later in the evening. This report should look to detail intended government spending and borrowing levels over the next year, and as such will have a notable impact on the economy and on the value of the higher yielding currency.
We expect a range today of 0.7850 – 0.7930
New Zealand Dollar:
Interest rate concerns have sent the NZ dollar into a downward spiral throughout the entirety of yesterday’s trading session with the Kiwi opening noticeably lower today against it US counterpart at 0.7337. With several major banks in New Zealand, including ANZ and ASB, predicting a rate cut over the next few months, speculation that this may occur in the very new future has pushed the NZD value down against a handful of its major counterparts. Yesterday’s highs and lows came in at NZD/USD 0.7429 and NZD/USD 0.7329 respectively. With yet another economic docket free of reports today the NZ dollar is expected to remain in a familiar range while investors anxiously await tomorrows RBNZ Financial Stability Report.
Great British Pound:
The Pound Sterling has opened stronger today against several other G10 Growth Currencies with the Bank of England opting to keep the official bank rate at 0.5%. This release is in line with expectations as commentators do not expect rates to rise for some time, and Governor Carney did not issue a statement with this decision, however he will look to elaborate on the announcement in tomorrow’s quarterly update and inflation report. The GBP has opened at 1.5585 against the Greenback, and at 1.9744 and 2.1237 against the Aussie and Kiwi respectively. Today’s manufacturing production data for the month of March is scheduled for release, and traders will be looking to these results for any possible indication on the current health of the UK economy.
We expect a range today of GBP/AUD 1.9700 – 1.9780
Majors:
The EUR/USD has opened lower for a 2nd consecutive day as Eurogroup meetings conclude yesterday seemingly without much progress. The Euro zone finance ministers did issue a statement stating that they are pleased with the progress that Greece has made so far, however they do caution that much more effort and time will be needed overcome complications with creditors. In the United States there were no major economic announcements made yesterday nor are there any scheduled for today, indicating that the Greenback will most likely tread water around the same levels as investors await monthly sales data being printed tomorrow. The EUR/USD opens today at 1.1156.
Data releases:
AUD: Home Loans m/m, Annual Budget Release
EUR: ECOFIN Meetings
GBP: BRC Retails Sales Monitor y/y, Manufacturing Production m/m, Industrial Production m/m, NIESR GDP Estimate
JPY: 10-y Bond Auction, Leading Indicators
USD: NFIB Small Business Index, JOLTS Job Openings, FOMC Member Williams Speaks, Federal Budget Balance