All Eyes On The Fed: Key Events In The Coming Central Bank-Dominated Week

Last week it was all about the ECB, which disappointed on hopes of further rate cuts (leading to the Thursday selloff) but delivered on the delayed realization that the ECB is now greenlighting a tsunami in buybacks (leading to the Friday market surge). This week it is once again all about central banks, only this time instead of stimulus, the risk is to the downside, with the BOJ expected to do nothing at all after the January NIRP fiasco, while the “data dependent” Fed will – if anything – hint at further hawkishness now that the S&P is back over 2,000.

Here are the key upcoming events, summarized by DB’s Jim Reid:

It’s a quiet start to the week today with the only data of note the Euro area industrial production print for January where following the regional readings we saw last week, expectations are for a robust rise.
Tuesday kicks off in Japan where we’ll get the important BoJ meeting first thing (no change expected), with Kuroda due to speak after. The European session consists of the final February CPI print for France along with Q4 employment data for the Euro area. The US calendar finally kicks into gear tomorrow after a bit of a lull of late, with February retail sales (expected to be -0.1% mom at the headline, +0.2% mom at the core), February PPI (-0.1% mom headline decline expected), empire manufacturing, NAHB housing market index and January business inventories data all out.
Turning to Wednesday where the European session kicks off with UK employment data for January. That’s before we turn to a bumper US session again with February CPI (headline expected at -0.2% mom, core +0.1% mom), building permits, housing starts, industrial and manufacturing production and finally the all important FOMC meeting conclusion.
Moving to Thursday where we’re back in Japan again for the February trade numbers. In Europe on Thursday there’s more Central Bank focus with the BoE decision, while data-wise the final revision to February CPI for the Euro area is due. In the US on Thursday we’ve got initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed business outlook, JOLTS job openings and the Conference Board’s leading index for February.
We close out Friday with a quieter session for data. Euro area labour costs for Q4 and German PPI is due in the morning, before the flash March University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey draws to a close a busy week for the US

Away from the data we’ll hear from the Fed’s Dudley, Rosengrean and Bullard all on Friday at various stages. There’s little in the way of ECB speak, but we do have UK Chancellor Osborne due to deliver his budget on Wednesday. We’ll also hear from China Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday who is due to conclude the NPC. Finally the US Presidential race continues with another 6 primary’s due.

The key US events summarized in this handy table from BofA: