Market Roundup
- CA Ivey PMI SA Apr 58.2, (consensus 49.2, previous 47.9)
- BR Industrial Output YY Mar -3.5%, (consensus -3%, previous -9.40%)
- BR HSBC Composite PMI Apr 44.2, (previous 47)
- US ADP National Emp Apr 169.0k, (consensus 200k, previous +175k), Apr below consensus & Mar revised down
- US Labor Costs Prelim Q1 5%, (consensus 4.3%, previous 4.20%)
- Fed’s Yellen says equity valuations high, warns of ‘potential dangers’
- Fed’s Lockhart Mkts pushing expectations for a Sept raye hike reflects a reasonable alignment w/likely policy outlook
- Fed’s George Cmte clear it is going to continue to lookat data as it comes in, could hike at any meeting
- UK’s Conservatives, Labour tied ahead of Thursday election (ICM poll)
- Panelbase put labor at 33%, Conservatives at 31% ahead of UK election
- Germany’s Schaeuble says wrong for Greece to blame troika, EU or Germany
- EU’s Juncker, Greece’s Tsipras discuss need for pension reform
- Mexico’s Carstens if inflation expectations become un-anchored may have to act
- Fitch affirms Chile’s foreign-currency IDR at ‘A+’; Outlook stable
- Reuters Poll EUR/USD seen at 1.09 in 1 mos, 1.04 in 6-mos, 1.03 in 1-yr (1.07,1.04,1.04 in Apr)
Economic Data Ahead
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Australia AIG Construction Index Apr (previous 50)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Employment Apr (consensus 5.0k, previous 37.7k)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Full Time Employment Apr (previous 31.5k)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Participation Rate Apr (consensus 64.8%, previous 64.80%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Unemployment Rate Apr (consensus 6.2%, previous 6.10%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
EUR/USD: Disappointing US ADP report today sent the dollar lower and underpinned upside in EUR/USD. Greek headlines unveiling some ‘progress’ in the EU-Greece debt talks provided further support. EUR/USD now on track to re-visit session highs around 1.1360. Buying interest remains intact. EUR/USD is up 1.58% on the day, currently trading at 1.1363. Next resistance is at 1.1371 (high May 6) followed by 1.1380 (high Feb 26) and then 1.1400 (psychological level). Supports are seen at 1.1175 (low May 6), 1.1066 (low May 5) and finally 1.0959 (low Apr 29). Option expiries for Thursday 7 May: Nothing any size until Friday at 1.1200 in 1BLN
EUR/GBP is remaining with a bid theme as we head towards elections day. bulls need a convincing close above the 38.2% fibo at0.7416 level this week. EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.7440 with a high of 0.7450 and a low of 0.7360. Supports seen at 0.7118 April low, then 0.7015 March low and finally 0.7000. Option expiries for Thursday 7 May: 0.7250-65 (210M)
USD/JPY: Softer-than-expected US employment data pushed USD/JPY to a 6-day low. The pair extended its pullback from the 120.50 area where it printed a 3-week peak yesterday, and stretched to a weekly low of 119.19 before finding support and recovering slightly. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 119.50 still 0.27% below its opening price. Supports are seen at 119.20 zone, next at 119.00 (psychological level) and 118.60 (Apr 29 low). On the upside, immediate resistances are seen at 119.90 (50-day SMA), 120.02 (daily high) and 120.50 (May 5 high). Option expiries for Thursday 7 May: 119.00 (650M), 120.50-60 (650M)
USD/CAD: The CAD benefitted initially from strong domestic and poor US data, but failed to sustain gains. USD/CAD bounced sharply from 3-month lows as the loonie weakened during American session tracking the pullback in oil prices. USD/CAD rose more than 100 pips from a low of 1.1939 to a session high of 1.2044. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2035, still 0.25% down on the day. Resistances are seen at the 1.2081/86 zone (10-day SMA/daily high), 1.2100 (psychological level) and 1.2130 (May 5 high). Supports could be found at 1.1939 (daily low) and 1.1900 (psychological level). Option expiries for Thursday 7 May: 1.1950 (482M)
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