Market Roundup
- US Existing Home Sales Mar 5.19m, f/c 5.03m, 4.89m-prev, beat put US rate hike back in focus
- European Union Apr consumer confidence flash decrease to -4.6 (fcast -2.75 ) vs prev -3.70
- Brazil w/e foreign exchange flows increase to 4.41 bln vs prev 0.969 bln
- Brazil current account Mar -5.736b, f/c -5.000b, -6.900b-prev
- United States feb monthly home price index mm increase to 220.5 vs prev 219.0
- United States Feb monthly home price yy increase to 5.4 % vs prev 5.1 %
- United States Feb monthly home price mm increase to 0.7 % vs prev 0.3 %
- Bank of England upbeat on euro zone, eyes inflation pressures (MPC minutes)
- Greek govt refuses to back down on pension cuts, tax hikes
- ECB raises ELA cap by EUR 1.5b to 75.5b
- SNB says reduces exemptions from negative interest rates, USD & EUR rise v CHF
- Mex CB’s Carstens no evidence of inflationary pressure that would justify rate hike at moment
- Reuters Poll 30/36 economists say EZ econ now on sustainable recovery path
- Reuters Poll-Bank of England rate rise of 25 basis points to 0.75 pct to come in Q1 2016 (same as April 1 poll)
- Reuters Poll-median 60 pct chance BoE increases rates by end-q1 2016
Economic Data Ahead
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e (previous 215.1b)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Invest Japan Stock w/e (previous 1042.1b)
- (2135 ET/ 0135 GMT) Japan Manufacturing PMI Flash Apr (previous 50.3)
- (2145 ET/ 0145 GMT) China HSBC Mfg PMI Flash Apr (consensus 49.6, previous 49.6)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY rose to fresh 8-day highs as dollar picked up momentum across the board following upbeat US housing data. However, the pair lacked momentum and faltered a few pips shy of the 120.00 level. At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 119.85, up 0.17% on the day. A decisive break above 119.95/120.00, could see next resistances at 120.16 (Apr 14 high) and 120.83 (Apr 13 high). On the flip side, supports are at 119.34/28 (daily low/100-day SMA), 119.15 (Apr 21 low) and 119.00 (psychological level). Option expiries Thursday 23 April: 119.35 (380M), 120.00 (660M), 120.50 (350M)
USD/CAD: Loonie supported by oil prices during early American session. But the pair came under pressure during the afternoon trade and fell toward the 1.2210 area. USD/CAD has spent the last hours in a 50-pip range and it was last trading 0.39% down at 1.2230. The pair is trying to consolidate above the 1.2300 level.
EUR/USD treading water around 1.0730. The pair earlier rose to the 1.0800’s, but pared gains and is now looking to consolidate around 1.0730/35. Thursday makets will look for cues from the flash gauges of the EZ manufacturing and services PMIs followed by New Home Sales and Markit’s manufacturing PMI in the US economy. Currently the pair is down 0.01% trading at 1.0734. Support lies at 1.0660 followed by 1.0646 (61.8% of 1.0521-1.0849) and then 1.0624. Resistances are at 1.0802, 1.0825 and 1.0849. Option expiries Thursday 23 April: 1.0650 (607M), 1.0700 (400M), 1.0735 (600M), 1.0800 (717M), 1.0835 (455M).
GBP/USD: Pound continued its upbeat momentum from the European session taking cable to the area of 1.5035/40. The pair found a tough barrier in the 1.5080/85 area, sellers there triggered a correction to the 1.5040 region. GBP/USD is holding gains above 1.5000, currently trading at 1.5041, up 0.77% on the day. Immediate hurdle is at 1.5082 followed by 1.5100 and finally 1.5195 (100-d MA). Supports lie at 1.4915 (hourly low ), 1.4857 and then 1.4813.
AUD/NZD is rising after three consecutive day of losses and is back at the level it had at the beginning of the week. Aussie rallied in the Asian session after inflation data from Australia reduced expectations of a rate cut by RBA. The pair resumed the upside during the American session and recently printed a fresh high at 1.0135. 1.0150 and the 1.0200 – 1.0220 area that limited the pair on the previous two weeks will be important levels to watch for. Support lies at 1.0080 (European session low) and 1.0035 (Apr 21, 22 low). Option expiries Thursday 23 April: 1.0200 (3BLN)
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