Market Roundup
- US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 295k, f/c 290k, 294k-prev
- US New Hm Sales Chg MM Mar -11.4%, 5.60%-prev, moves yields lower presses on USD
- MX IGAE Econ Activity MM Feb -0.03%, 0.22%-prev, low growth may lead to steady rates
- Merkel says everything must be done to prevent Greece running out of money before a debt deal
- EU’s Dombrovskis says doubts increasing on Greece, Europe’s econ picking up modestly
- EU’s Katainen says lack of trust in Greece, solution still possible
- Greece’s Tsipras urges speeded up process to clinch debt deal, talks with Merkel took place in positive & constructive spirit
- UK’s Labour hold 3 point lead over Conservatives (Panelbase poll)
- Banxico’s Carstens Mexico weighs economy’s need for low rates vs Fed, will adjust rate if sees inflation threatened by weak peso
- Commodities rally: oil up 2.6%, copper up 1.2% lifts EM equities
Economic Data Ahead
- No Significant Data
Key Events Ahead
- (2300 ET/ 0300 GMT) Japan BOJ Dep Gov Nakaso speaks on the long-term prospects for Asia’s economy hosted by the Securities Analysts Association of Japan
FX Recap
USD/JPY: Dollar was initially resilient but then weakened broadly during the New York session following a string of disappointing US data. USD/JPY drops to fresh daily lows at 119.58. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 119.65, down 0.23% on the day. Support seen at 119.43 (100- & 200-hour SMA), while resistances could be found at 120.08 (daily high) and 120.83 (Apr 13 high). Option expiries Friday 24th April: 120.00 (200M), 121.50 (550M)
USD/CAD: Poor results from the US docket today dragged the US Dollar Index to test multi-day lows. USD/CAD slipped to weekly lows near 1.2130. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2143 down 0.77% on the day. Supports are seen at 1.2100, then 1.2088 (low Apr 17) and finally 1.2062 (low Jan 21). Immediate resistance lies at 1.2180 (low Apr 20) followed by 1.2208 (low Apr 22) and then 1.2250 (high Apr 23). Option expiries Friday 24th April: 1.2200 (310M), 1.2300 (301M)
GBP/USD is up on the 1.50 handle, currently trading at 1.5060 with a high of 1.5071 and a low of 1.4958. With elections coming up in next couple of weeks pressure could mount on the pound, meaning that bulls may look to take profit and this will limit scope for progressing on. Major resistance is at 1.5155 and 1.4960 is a strong support.
EUR/USD is extending its upbeat momentum in the second half of the week. The pair was bolstered by the positive talks between Greece and its creditors, allaying fears of a default. EUR/USD managed to quickly shrug off the disappointing results from the euro-zone preliminary PMIs. EUR/USD is now pushing to session highs around 1.0835/40. Next hurdle at 1.0849 (high Apr 17) ahead of 1.0888 (high Apr 8) and then 1.0914 (76.4% of 1.1036-1.0521). On the downside, supports are at 1.0732 (hourly low Apr 23) then 1.0705 (200 – HMA) and finally 1.0660 (low Apr 21). Option expiries Friday 24th April: 1.0600 (650M), 1.0675 (459M), 1.0700 (696M), 1.0800 (229M)
EUR/GBP: Euro made a stronger recovery on Thursday against the pound. EUR/GBP made strong bounce from 5-week lows, rose sharply during the European and the American session toward 0.7200. Earlier the pair dropped to 0.7117 hitting the lowest value since March 16 . Today the pair is having the best performance in a month, currently attempting to rise back above 0.7200. Resistance levels might lie at 0.7235 (April 14 high) and 0.7260.
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