Market Roundup
- ECB leaves key rates unchanged, sees ’15 inflation 0.1% v 0.3% in Jun; ’16 inflation 1.1 v 1.5% in Jun.
- ECB’s Draghi: issue share limit will be increased from 25% to 33% in QE, on case by case basis.
- ECB’s Draghi: renewed downside risks have emerged for growth, inflation outlook.
- ECB’s Draghi: QE intended to run until Sep ’16, may run beyond if necessary.
- ECB’s Draghi : inflation to rise toward end of year, partly due to base effects from oil prices.
- IMF: Fed has flexibility to hold off w/rate hikes, no comment on specific timing.
- U.S. Treasury’s Lew says China must also allow market forces to drive Yuan up.
- US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 282k, forecast- 275k, 270k-previous.
- US Continued Jobless Claims* w/e 2.257m, forecast- 2.250m, 2.266m-previous.
- US Markit Comp Final PMI Aug 55.7, 55-previous.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index Aug 56, 59.6-previous.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing Price Paid Index Aug 50.8, 53.7-previous.
- Brazil Markit Composite PMI Aug 44.8, 40.8-prev, A beat vs previous but still well below 50.
- Brazil’s finance minister cancels G20 trip to meet Rousseff.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
- 01:30 Japan Overtime Pay Jul -0.4%-previous
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
- 06:00 Japan- IMF Deputy Director (Asia and Pacific Department) Kalpana Kochhar speaks at the IMF seminar – Reloading Abenomics: Priorities for the Needed Regime Shift – 0600 GMT.
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1020 levels and currently trading at 1.1133 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.1249 and hit lows at 1.1226 levels. The euro fell 1 percent on Thursday, surrendering most of the solid gains made against the dollar since China devalued the yuan last month, after European central bankers cut economic growth targets and left interest rates unchanged. The dollar rallied, helped by weekly jobless data signaling a strong U.S. labor market the day before Friday’s August jobs report, which may be crucial for Federal Reserve policymakers considering raising interest rates. The European Central Bank lowered its forecasts for inflation and economic growth, citing a slowdown in emerging markets and weaker oil prices. During Draghi’s news conference, the euro dropped 1.4 percent against the dollar to touch a two-week low of $1.1108. It was last off 0.90 percent at $1.1122 after earlier this week reaching a high of $1.1332 as investors spooked by markets turmoil in China moved heavily into the euro and yen. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1146. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.1082 levels.
GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.5215 levels and currently trading at 1.5255 levels. It reached session high at 1.5787 and dropped to session low at 1.5288 levels. Sterling declined to new monthly lows against dollar on Thursday, the cable started to decline against the dollar, after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi flagged downside risks to the euro zone economy and inflation and kept the door open for more quantitative easing. Draghi’s dovish stance was a contrast to BoE Governor Mark Carney, who said on Saturday that while a slowdown in China’s economy could push down inflation further. The pounds decline against greenback was started earlier in the day after Service PMI dropped to its weakest pace since May 2013 at 55.6 against the economists forecast of 57.6. Sterling hit a low of $1.5235, having traded at $1.5263 before the data was released. It was at $1.5256 in afternoon trade, down 0.3 percent on the day. In Britain, the soft services sector data came in the back drop of yesterday’s construction PMI data grew at a weaker-than-expected pace, while the manufacturing sector PMI survey also missed expectations. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.5274. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.5211 levels.
USD/JPY is supported around 119.65 levels and currently trading at 120.06 levels. It peaked to hit session high at 120.29 and made session lows at 120.03 levels. Japanese yen rose against US dollar on Thursday, after the European Central Bank cut its growth and inflation forecasts on Thursday, warning of possible further trouble may arise from China and decision to continue the existing bond buying programme. ECB’s president Mario Draghi said clearly the bond-buying programme may continue beyond September 2016 and the bank may adjust its size and composition. As it stands, the ECB is buying 60 billion euros per month assets, mostly government bonds. Draghi’s remarks come a day ahead of the monthly U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to show that the economy added 220,000 nonfarm jobs in August, up from 215,000 in July. The Fed, which meets on Sept. 16-17 to review the interest rate decision, for that the payrolls number is key, if the data is good then a September rate hike may come into play. During the session the pair slipped back below 120.00 levels and hit session lows at 119.64. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 120.25. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 119.53 levels.
USD/CAD is supported at 1.3150 levels and is trading at 1.3191 levels. It has made session high at 1.3324 and lows at 1.3234 levels. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, supported by a smaller-than-expected trade deficit in July in Canada and comments from the European Central Bank that dominated currency market moves which hammered the euro. Canada’s export sector posted healthy growth for the second month in a row in July, helping cut the country’s trade deficit to an eight-month low of C$593 million, significantly less than the C$1.30 billion economists had forecast. The loonie traded between C$1.3245 and C$1.3289 so far during the session. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3118. To the downside, immediate support level is located at 1.3148levels.
Equities Recap
European shares rose sharply on Thursday, extending earlier gains as the European Central Bank delivered a dovish message from its first meeting after weeks of market turmoil.
UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.9 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 2.5 percent, Germany’s Dax ended up by 2.8 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 2.3 percent.
Wall Street rose on Thursday after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi hinted at additional stimulus measures and ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could figure in the Federal Reserve’s decision about when to lift interest rates. Dow Jones closed up by 0.13 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.12 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.35 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices inched higher on Thursday in see-saw trade, tracking gains in Wall Street equities for a second straight day despite a weekly build in U.S. crude inventories that weighed on the outlook for oil.
Brent’s front-month contract, settled up 18 cents at $50.68 a barrel. At one point during the session it had risen above $52. U.S. crude’s front-month gained 50 cents, settling at $46.75. It went above $48 earlier.
Gold fell 1 percent on Thursday as the dollar jumped versus the euro after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut inflation forecasts, while a U.S. jobs report that could provide clues on the timing of a Federal Reserve rate rise remained in focus.
Spot gold fell as much as 1.1 percent to a session low of $1,121.35 an ounce and was down 0.8 percent at $1,125.20 at 2:47 p.m. EDT (1847 GMT). U.S. gold for December delivery settled down 0.8 percent at $1,124.50 an ounce.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury debt prices rose modestly on Thursday after a dovish outlook from the European Central Bank made U.S. government debt more attractive than European counterparts, but caution ahead of Friday’s monthly U.S. employment report limited gains.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were last up 6/32 in price to yield 2.17 percent. U.S. 30-year Treasuries were last up 8/32 in price to yield 2.95 percent after briefly hitting a more than one-month high of 2.98 percent earlier in the session.Two-year notes were last up 1/32 in price to yield 0.70 percent, from a yield of 0.72 percent late Wednesday.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com