Market Roundup
- United States w/e initial jobless claims increase to 279 k (fcast 277 k) vs prev 276 k
- United States May retail sales mm increase to +1.2 % (fcast 1.1 %) vs prev 0.0 %
- United States May import prices mm increase to +1.3 % (fcast 0.8 %) vs prev -0.3 %
- United States May export prices mm increase to +0.6 % (fcast 0.2 %) vs prev -0.7 %
- US Business Inventories MM Apr 0.4%, f/c 0.2%, 0.1%-prev
- US Retail Ex Gas/Autos May 0.7%, 0.2%-prev
- MX Industrial Output MM Apr -0.1%, f/c 0.1%, 0.1%-prev, oil related weakness shrugged off as factory o/p rises
- EU’s Tusk Greek govt must be more realistic, there is no more space for gambling
- IMF main obstacles w/Greeks are around pensions, taxes and financing, Greek team leaves Brussels
- Bundesbank’S Dombret says financing problems are increasing further in Greece
- Greek Govt spokeman says Greek delegation ready to intensify negotiations to reach a debt deal soon
- Bk of Canada’s Poloz effect of cheap oil on incomes should be partly offset by cheaper gas, stronger US growth, lower CAD and impact of easier mon policy
- BoC’S Poloz: Sees economic effects of bad weather extending into second quarter
- Bank of Canada’S Poloz: Assessment of financial system risks doesn’t cause bank to think either way about raising or cutting rates
- Bank of Canada’S Poloz: January rate cut reduced downside risk to inflation
- Bank of Canada: Overall risk to financial stability in canada has risen in face of lower oil, but resilience of system continues to improve
- Brazil CB minutes mon pol needs to persevere to prevent high inflation from continuing
- Boeing says revises up 20-year jet demand forecast by 3.5 percent
- Boeing sees demand for 38,050 new aircraft worth $5.6 trillion over next 20 years
Economic Data Ahead
- (1830 ET/ 2230 GMT) NewZealand Manufacturing PMI May (previous 51.8)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Food Price Index May (previous -0.3%)
- (2300 ET/ 0300 GMT) NewZealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings May (previous 63.9%)
- (0030 ET/ 0430 GMT) Japan Industrial Output Rev Apr (previous 1%)
- (0030 ET/ 0430 GMT) Japan Capacity Util Index Change MM Apr (previous -1.2%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
EUR/USD: Greek and EU officials keep alive hopes of a deal in the upcoming days. The initial sell off in the German Bunds propelled spot to session tops in the 1.1330 area. The upbeat momentum ran out of steam in the European afternoon helped by the positive print from US retail sales during May. EUR/USD is stabilizing around the mid 1.1200s as the session is drawing to a close. Currently the pair is down 0.70% trading at 1.1244. Supports are seen at 1.1182 (low Jun 11) followed by 1.1087 (low Jun 8) and finally 1.1049 (low Jun 5). Resistances on the upside are at 1.1334 (high Jun 11), 1.1387 (high Jun 10) and then 1.1400 (psychological level). Options expiries for Friday 12 June: 1.1230 (286M)
NZD/USD collapsed 240 pips from 0.7200 to its lowest level since September 2010 at 0.6965 in a furious reaction following the RBNZ’s interest rate cut. The pair found some buying interest that allowed the pair to consolidate just below 0.7000. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6996, down 2.88% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7084 and low at 0.6966. Resistances are seen at 0.7000, 0.7035 and 0.7050. To the downside, supports are at 0.6980. 0.6960 and 0.6950. Options expiries for Friday 12 June: 0.6900 (628M), 0.7200 (738M)
GBP/USD: After its prolonged steady trading vs. the dollar around the 1.5500 figure, GBP/USD is finally recovering ground, advancing towards further daily highs above 1.5520. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5524, down 0.04% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5532 and low at 1.5422. Next support is seen at 1.5406 (50% of 1.5257-1.5554) followed by 1.5371 (low Jun 10) and then 1.5355 (10-d MA). On the flipside resistances are at 1.5554 (high Jun 10) would open the door to 1.5569 (61.8% of 1.5815-1.5170) and finally 1.5575 (76.4% of 1.5700-1.5170). UK labour market results, BoE minutes and retail sales are all due to be published next week.
USD/CAD: The US Dollar lost steam against the Canadian Dollar and is trading below 1.2300 again. USD/CAD recovery from 1.2280 was stopped at 1.2330 and the USD/CAD started to fall again. Good US retail sales and the Canadian housing data fuelled volatility that has shaken the USD/CAD above and below the 1.2300 level today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2280, up 0.21% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2355 and low at 1.2252. Below 1.2300, supports are found at 1.2280, 1.2250 and 1.2200. To the upside, resistances are at 1.2325, 1.2350 and 1.2380. Options expiries for Friday 12 June: 1.2090-1.2100 (1.6BLN), 1.2400 (240M), 1.2470 (316M)
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