Market Roundup
- US Building Permits: Number May 1.275m, forecast 1.100m, previous 1.140m
- US Housing Starts Number MM May 1.036m, forecast 1.100m, previous 1.165m
- Nearly 90% of respondents see US Fed hiking rates IN q3 ’15, rest see hike in Q4 ’15 (Sifma)
- Brazil Apr retail sales mm increase to -0.4 % (forecast 0.60 %) vs previous -0.90 %
- Brazil Apr retail sales yy decrease to -3.5 % (forecast -1.75 %) vs previous 0.40 %
- Dairy prices fall 1.3%, volumes drop 13.2% at auction -NZ’s Fonterra
- U.S. seen growing 1.9 pct after housing data (Atlanta Fed GDPNow)
- Greece’s Tsipras held phone call w/US treasury’s Lew, Greece expressed intention to bridge differences in talks (Greek govt official)
- EU’s Juncker blames Greek Govt for telling voters things that are not what Juncker told Govt
- ECB’s Knot Greek banks solvent now, would be in trouble if Greek government defaults
- Japan to increase earthquake reconstruction spending by JPY 6.5trn in FY ’16-’20
Economic Data Ahead
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Current Account – Qtrly Q1 (consensus 0.235b, previous -3.190b)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Current Account- Annual Q1 (consensus -9.10b, previous -7.82b)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Cact Balance To GDP Q1 (consensus -3.80%, previous -3.30%)
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Japan Reuters Tankan DI Jun (previous 13)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Ausralia Westpac Leading Index m/m May (previous 0.1%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
EUR/USD is trying to consolidate in the 1.1240 region. A plethora of rumours coming from the Greek front keep markets volatile. At the time of writing the pair is trading at 1.1242 down 0.37% on the day. A break below 1.1205 (low Jun 16) would open the door to 1.1189 (low Jun 15) and then 1.1151 (low Jun 12). On the flip side, the immediate hurdle lines up at 1.1331 (high Jun 16) ahead of 1.1334 (high Jun 11) and finally 1.1387 (high Jun 10).
GBP/CHF: Pound Sterling continues to rise against the Swiss Franc and today reached the strongest level since May 27. GBP/CHF is 450 pips up from last week lows. The Greek crisis continues to weigh on the Euro and the Swissy. GBP/CHF has risen in five out of the last six trading days and Sterling continues to be the best performer among European currencies. Today the pair broke decisively above 1.4500 and peaked at 1.4595. Currently GBP/CHF trades at 1.4590, still near the 1.4600 psychological area. To the upside, above 1.4600 the next key resistance lies at 1.4680/90.
USD/JPY has been meandering around 123.40, almost unchanged on the day. The pair has been trading in a narrow range today, navigating between 123.30 and 123.80. Markets cautious ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meet and J.Yellen’s press conference, all preceding the BoJ monetary policy meeting on Friday. Currently the pair is trading at 123.38 down 0.02% on the day. Next immediate support is at 123.32 (low Jun 16) ahead of 123.10 (low Jun 15) and then 123.00 (psychological level). On the upside, resistances are at 123.81 (high Jun 16), 124.16 (Tenkan Sen) and 124.63 (high Jun 10).
GBP/USD: GBP is bid despite misses in inflation numbers overnight. Upside may be limited, especially as head towards the FOMC showdown this week. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5650 with a high of 1.5655 and a low of 1.5540. The major targets 1.5813 high while to the downside, support are located at 1.5540, 1.5420 and 1.5260.
AUD/USD: Markets quiet ahead of the key risk event of the week, the FOMC meeting tomorrow. AUD/USD trades slightly down on the day, pulled back from the 100-day SMA at the 0.7780 zone. The downside was contained by the 0.7720 area during the European session, but the Aussie failed to gather enough strength to turn around losses. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7740, down 0.29% on the day. Immediate resistances are seen at 0.7776/79 (100-day SMA/Jun 16 high), 0.7792 (Jun 11 high) and 0.7818 (Jun 3 high). On the flip side, supports could be found at 0.7721 (Jun 16 low), 0.7703/00 (Jun 15 low/psychological level) and 0.7677 (Jun 12 low).
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