Market Roundup
- US GDP Final Q1 -0.2%, (consensus -0.2%, previous -0.7%)
- US GDP Consumer Spending Final Q1 2.1%, (previous 1.8%)
- US core PCE Prices Fnal Q1 0.8%, (consensus 0.8%, previous 0.8%)
- United States May build permits revised number mm decrease to 1.25 mln vs previous 1.275 mln
- Mexico Jun 1ST half-mth core inflation increase to 0.13 % (consensus 0.10 %, previous 0.03 %)
- Mexico Apr IGAE econ activity yy decrease to 2.1 % (consensus 2.20 %, previous 2.70 %)
- Brazil’s CB sees ’15 inflation at 9.0% v 7.9% pvs in ’15, GDP growth at -1.1% vs -0.5 pvs, says outlook for inflation to converge to target in 2016 has strengthened, mon pol should remain vigilant
- Greek Official says creditors’ presented new proposals that burdened pensioners & wage earners in unfair way, talks will continue after Eurogroup meeting
- German FinMin still long way to go before Greek deal reached, up to Greece to make a move
- IMF’s Lagarde says Greek plan can’t be based only on tax pledges
- ECB’s Knot role on Greece now limited to supporting Greek banks
- ECB’s Visco says that for time being there are no signs low interest rates are creating imbalances
- Belgian finmin says: Greek bailout has not been carried out correctly by Greece
- EU’S Moscovici says: deal with Greece is possible
- Austrian finimn says a debt restructuring would be equivalent to a third bailout through a back door
Economic Data Ahead
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e (previous -1850.6b)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Invest Japan Stock w/e (previous -413.2b)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX RecapEUR/USD spiked beyond the 1.1200 figure ahead of the Eurogroup meeting. Greek authorities have rejected twice a set of proposals from their EU peers and that the gap between both parties remain wide. Comments and the like let infer that a deal tonight remains highly unlikely. Currently the pair is trading at 1.1201 up 0.30% on the day. Resistances ahead lie at 1.1236 (high Jun 23), 1.1349 (high Jun 23) and finally 1.1404 (high Jun 22). On the flipside support lines up at 1.1154 (low Jun 24) followed by 1.1135 (low Jun 23) and then 1.1087 (low Jun 8). Option expiries for Thursday 25 June: 1.100 (918M), 1.1115 (369M), 1.1150 (380M), 1.1200 (333M), 1.1215 (367M)
USD/JPY: Greenback lost strength in the market during the last hour of trade. USD/JPY pared gains after hitting a daily high at 124.39 and slipped below 124.00 tracking U.S. stocks lower. Currently the pair trades at 123.96, marginally higher for the day and far from the highs. Federal Reserve policy expectations and the Greek crisis remain main market focus. Support levels might lie ta 123.70 (daily low), 123.55 (June 23 low) and 123.30. On the opposite direction, resistance now could be located at 124.15, 124.40 (daily high) and 124.60. Option expiries for Thursday 25 June: 123.00 (1.37BLN), 123.50 (1.3BLN), 124.30 (355M), 125.00 (265M)
EUR/AUD: Greek uncertainties weigh on EUR/AUD and the cross is caught between key support/resistance. EUR/AUD has made a minor recovery from the lows and finds 1.4400 level as support. Currently the pair is trading at 1.4533 with a high of 1.4554 and a low of 1.4404. The downside is supported at 1.44 and 1.4730/50 caps demand. Negotiations continue in to a further Eurogroup meeting tomorrow.
GBP/JPY: Sentiment sours as headlines bring back concerns that a deal for Greece will not materialise this week after all. Risk sentiment is favouring the dollar and yen once again. GBP/JPY is currently trading at 194.41 with a high of 195.89 and a low of 194.25. Break of channel support would bring in 193.50 in to the picture guarding 192.00.
USD/MXN: The Greek crisis dominated the scenario on Wednesday. USD/MXN traded momentarily below 15.400 but then as greenback gained momentum across the board, price rose toward 15.50. The pair peaked at 15.495 and then pulled back modestly, ending the US session hovering around 15.48, 2.10% above last week lows. US docket tomorrow includes jobless claims and personal spending while in Mexico the next numbers will be the trade balance and the unemployment rate on Friday.
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