Market Roundup
- Brazil Jun IPCA-15 mid-month CPI increase to 0.99 % (forecast 0.85 %) vs prev 0.60 %
- Canada May CPI BoC core yy decrease to +2.2 % (fcast 2.1 %) vs prev 2.3 %
- Russia May PPI yy decrease to 13.4 % vs prev 15.0 %
- ECB raises ELA cap for Greek banks by EUR 1.8 bln (Greek official)
- Greek deposit outflows reach about EUR 1.2 bln Friday (Bankers)
- EZ officials to discuss on Monday handling of Greek default if no new reform proposals arrive
- Germany’s Merkel important to stick w/the principle that the institutions must first reach a deal w/Greece
- Fed’s Williams wants stronger inflation data before hiking rates, believes this is the year for liftoff, some of decline in labor force participation suggest slack, but it is shrinking
- Fed’s Mester economy can now support 25bp hike, expects inflation to start to rise on heels of dollar, oil moves
- Bank of England’s McCafferty sees chance of 2015 rate rise, hinges on data
Economic Data Ahead
- (1800 ET/ 2200 GMT) NewZealand Westpac Consumer Survey Q2 (previous 117.4)
Key Events Ahead
- (0100 ET/ 0500 GMT) Japan Bank of Japan’s Monthly Economic Report for June
FX Recap
EUR/USD: Euro on track to end the third week with gains vs. the greenback. On Friday the pair erazed some gains after hitting fresh 1-month tops around 1.1440 following the steady stance of the FOMC at its meeting on Wednesday. EU leaders have called an emergency meeting on Monday after failure of negotiations at this week’s Eurogroup meeting, while a conference call between EU officials has not been ruled out over the weekend. Option expiries for Monday 22 June: 1.1200 (562M), 1.1300 (592M)
NZD/USD Bears are riding the RBNZ’s surprise cut from last week still. NZD/USD is closing the week in the hands of the bears, with the downside pressures that developed circa 0.6980 taking effect and a close below the 0.69 handle. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6899 with a high of 0.6940 and a low of 0.6889. Supports are seen at 0.6846, 0.6829 and 0.6812. Option expiries for Monday 22 June: 0.7000 (314M)
USD/JPY bottomed at 122.55 (fresh daily low) and then rebounded, trading at 122.70/75, 15 pips below yesterday’s closing price Greenback lacks demand due to the recent revaluation of the Fed’s funding rate for 2016/17 that was reported in the FOMC statement this week. USD/JPY is trading at 122.66 with a high of 123.22 and a low of 122.55. The 122.40/50 area continues to be a key support level; it capped the downside three times during the current month. A break lower could open the doors for a bearish run, exposing 122.00.. Major resistance remains 124.10/15. Option expiries for Monday 22 June: 122.00 (1.56BLN), 123.50 (892M), 124.00 (430M), 125.00 (4.24BLN)
GBP/JPY: The Sterling weak against the Japanese yen for the second day in a row, retreating from multi-year highs but still up for the week. Today price found resistance at 195.50 and during the American session dropped toward yesterday’s lows that lie at 194.30. GBP/JPY currently trades at 194.70/80, 300 pips above the level it had a week ago and headed toward the tenth weekly gain in a row. Resiatances are located at 195.56, 196.05 and 196.53. On the flipside supports lie at 194.06, 193.57 and then 193.09.
GBP/USD strong rally extended for second week in a row, up 700 pips so far in the last two weeks, from 1.5250 to 1.5930. The British Pound is ready to close Friday flat against the US Dollar. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5871, down 0.04% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5899 and low at 1.5836. Above 1.5810, GBP/USD will find resistances at 1.5870, 1.5950 and 1.6000. To the downside, supports are at 1.5850, 1.5830 and 1.5805.
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