Market Roundup
- US Non-Farm Payrolls Apr +223k, (consensus 224k, previous +85k)
- US Unemployment Rate Apr 5.4%, (consensus 5.4%, previous 5.50%)
- US Average Earnings MM Apr 0.1%, (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.20%)
- Canada Employment Change Apr -19.7k, (consensus -5.0k, previous 28.7k)
- Canada Unemployment Rate Apr 6.8%, (consensus 6.9%, previous 6.80%)
- Brazil IPCA Inflation Index YY Apr 8.17%, (consensus 8.22%, previous 8.13%)
- Mexico Consumer Conf SA Apr 90.8, (previous 93)
- Cameron sweeps to unexpected triumph in British election, cable soars
- ECB’s Draghi concerns about scarcity of bonds for QE not warranted, QE program sufficiently flexible to be adjusted should circumstances change
- ECB’s Constancio monetary policy has to stay accommodative to bring inflation back up
- ECB’s Constancio collateral haircuts for Greece’s ELA have been discussed, no decision made
- SNB’s Jordan will intervene in FX markets if necessary to influence monetary conditions
- UK’s Cameron says we will deliver the in/out EU membership referendum
- EU’s Moscovici says Britain’s place is in EU
- EU’s Moscovici says so far Greek reforms have not gone fast enough nor far enough
- Moody’s there could be p[potential repercussions for UK sov rating if the UK is unable to broadly replicate the benefits of EU membership
- Reuters Poll 16/18 primary dealers see Fed raising FF rate in Sept & 2 rate hikes by YE ’15
Economic Data Ahead
- (Sat 0130 ET/ 2130 GMT) China PPI YY Apr (consensus -4.4%, previous -4.60%)
- (Sat 0130 ET/ 2130 GMT) China CPI YY Apr (consensus 1.6%, previous 1.40%)
- (Sat 0130 ET/ 2130 GMT) China CPI MM Apr (consensus 0%, previous -0.50%)
- (0130 ET/ 2130 GMT) Australia NAB Bus Conditions Apr (previous 6)
- (0130 ET/ 2130 GMT) Australia NAB Bus Confidence Apr (previous 3)
- –:– China M2 Money Supply YY Apr (consensus 11.9%, previous 11.60%)
- –:– China New Yuan Loans Apr (consensus 903.0b, previous 1180.0b)
- –:– China Outstanding Loan Growth Apr (consensus 14%, previous 14.00%)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
GBP/CHF: Pound soared across the board and is about to have the best day in years boosted by the results of the general elections. GBP/CHF was trading around 1.4060 before the first results and then jumped above 1.4300. The pair soared from 3-month lows toward 1.4400, 1-week highs. During the American session extended gains and peaked at 1.4385. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4400 and above here at 1.4450 (Mar 31 high) and 1.4530. Support might now lie at 1.4330 (Friday’s Asian session high), 1.4175 and 1.4085.
EUR/GBP is consolidating the downside post the elections in the UK. The pair has recovered slightly from the lows and is currently trading at 0.7260 albeit below the 0.73 handle for the time being. During the day the pair made a high of 0.7388 and a low of 0.7225. Eurogroup meeting next week and BoE Inflation Report on Wed will be watched for further direction. Technically, the cross needs to get above 0.7323 otherwise the base of the range at 0.7157 remains under threat.
EUR/USD was unable to break above the key barrier on the upside at 1.1300 following today’s ‘in line’ Payrolls. The pair quickly returned to the 1.1200 neighbourhodd where it is trying to consolidate. Next week’s docket in the euro area has, the first relevant events Monday, German GDP and preliminary inflation figures ahead of EMU’s Q1 GDP and the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. Currently the pair is trading at 1.1234, down 0.28%. Next support is at 1.1179 (low May 8) followed by 1.1175 (low May 6) and finally 1.1100 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances are at 1.1272 (high May 8), 1.1300 (psychological level) and then 1.1393 (high May 7).
USD/JPY: Post Nonfarm Payrolls and has been volatile and USD/JPY fell away yet again from the 120.20 resistance, on a couple of occasions. The pair is currently trading at 119.76 with a high of 120.24 and a low of 119.58. Resistances are located at 120.82/84 and 122.07. To the downside, the 118.33 March 26 low remains familiar ahead of the February low at 116.64.
USD/CAD: Greenback weakened more than the loonie in the aftermath of below-expectations Canadian and US payrolls. USD/CAD initially moved higher to 1.2145, but pulled back from highs and dipped below the 1.21 mark during the American session. The pair has steadied in a range over the last hours, and it was last down 0.32% on the day at 1.2085.
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