Market Roundup
- US Retail Sales MM Apr 0%, (consensus 0.2%, previous 1.1%); headline miss leads Investment Banks to cut GDP tracking forecast’s
- US Retail Control Apr 0%, (consensus 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
- US Export Prices MM Apr -0.7%, (consensus 0.1%, previous 0.1%)
- US econ on track to grow 0.7% in Q2 after weak ret sales, vs 0.8% in April (Atl Fed’s GDPnow)
- Barclay’s, CS & GS cut Q2 GDP tracking forecast’s, to 2.5-2.6%, after weak US retail sales
- ECB’s Coeure not worried about increase in bond yields
- BOE’s Carney expects further pass through of GBP strength into UK econ after recent rally
- Canada’s Oliver frustrated Keystone oil pipeline awaits White House approval
- Moody’s: Most Mexican companies have solid short-term liquidity through 2016
- Brazil’s Levy says fiscal adjustments will lead to a stronger country, drive investment
- Chile trader poll sees rates on hold next 12-mos, inflation returning to target
- US MMF assets decrease by USD 8.32b in latest week (iMoneynet)
Economic Data Ahead
- (0800 ET/ 1200 GMT) NewZealand Manufacturing PM Apr (previous 54.5)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Retail Sales Volumes QQ Q1 1.5%, (consensus 1.678%, previous 1.70%)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Retail Qrtly Vs Yr Ago Q1 4.9%, (consensus 4.38%, previous 4.70%)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e (previous 185.3b)
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Invest Japan Stock w/e (previous 821.0b)
Key Events Ahead
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
EUR/USD is trading in multi-week tops in the upper-1.1300s buoyed by poor US retail sales data. EUR/USD is now up more than 150 pips trading in the 1.1370/75 band. Sell off in the European debt markets has also been supporting the upbeat momentum in spot. Currently the pair is trading at 1.1341 with the next resiatance at 1.1392 (high May 7) followed by 1.1450 (high Feb 17) and finally 1.1486 (high Feb 6). Supports are at 1.1202 (low May 13), 1.1131 (low May 11) and then 1.1067 (low May 5). Option expiries for Thursday 14 May: 1.1300 (478M)
GBP/CHF is retreating after rallying almost 800 pips over the last five days. The pair pulled back during the American hours and bottomed above 1.4400, but found support at 1.4408. During the last hours it has been consolidating around 1.4420/30. The area around 1.4400 and 1.4410 is the immediate support level to consider, followed by 1.4320/25 (Apr 11 low) and 1.4280. On the bullish side, resistance lies at 1.4450, 1.4515 and 1.4555.
USD/JPY: Greenback came under fire yet again today after retail sales miss set a bad scene for the quarter ahead against a back drop of poor NFP’s recently. USD/JPY spiked down through the 119 handle, taking out the resent supports. The pair is currently trading at 119.10 with a high of 119.98 and a low of 119.02. Next key support is seen at 118.40, while resistances lie at 120.82/84 being the December 2014 and the April high. Option expiries for Thursday 14 May: 1.1910 (900M), 119.50 (500M), 120.00 (2.7BLN)
USD/CAD: US dollar consolidates losses across the board weakened by the US retail sales report. USD/CAD dropped to 1.1927, reaching the lowest level since January 18 after release of retail sales data. The pair is falling for the second day in a row. Immediate support lies around 1.1925/30 (Apr 29, May 6) then 1.1890 (Jan 9 high) and 1.1845. Resistance seen at 1.1980 (American session high), 1.2000 and 1.2025/30 (daily high).
AUD/USD: Aussie shrugged off disappointing Chinese data and spiked during the NY session to hit a 4-month high. The greenback was weighed by weaker-than-expected retail sales data. AUD/USD gained about 160 pips throughout the day and rose toward a high of 0.8123. The pair is currently trading at 0.8090, up 1.44% on the day. Next hurdles seen at 0.8123 (daily high), 0.8133 (Jan 22 high) and 0.8200 (psychological level). Supports could be found at 0.8000 (psychological level), 0.7948 (daily low). Option expiries for Thursday 14 May: 0.8030 (200M) – NB on Friday 1.2BLN at 0.8000
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